Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

Bartlow, Andrew William; Manore, Carrie Anna; Xu, Chonggang; Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Ziemann, Amanda; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Fair, Jeanne Marie

doi:10.3390/vetsci6020040

Title: Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

Journal Article · 06 May 2019 · Veterinary Sciences

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci6020040 · OSTI ID:1532723

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Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: LDRD; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1532723

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--19-22170

Journal Information:: Veterinary Sciences, Journal Name: Veterinary Sciences Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 6; ISSN 2306-7381

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Advances in using Internet searches to track dengue Yang, Shihao; Kou, S. C.; Lu, Fred arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1612.02812	preprint	January 2016
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Climate change influences on the global potential distribution of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, vector of west Nile virus and lymphatic filariasis Samy, Abdallah figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.3487046.v1	dataset	January 2016
Alternatives To Statistical Hypothesis Testing In Ecology: A Guide To Self Teaching Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hilborn, Ray Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3293369.v1	collection	January 2016
Hierarchical Bayes for Structured, Variable Populations: from Recapture data to Life-History Prediction Clark, James S.; Ferraz, Gonçalo; Oguge, Nick Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3298721	collection	January 2016
On the application of multilevel modeling in environmental and ecological studies Qian, Song S.; Cuffney, Thomas F.; Alameddine, Ibrahim Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3301850	collection	January 2016
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Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted? Muñoz, Ángel G.; Thomson, Madeleine C.; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d82r5451	text	January 2017
Local environmental and meteorological conditions influencing the invasive mosquito Ae. albopictus and arbovirus transmission risk in New York City Little, Eliza Anastazia Hazel; Bajwa, Waheed; Shaman, Jeffrey L. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8s18f1c	text	January 2017

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