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Title: Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment

Abstract

Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts withmore » quantified uncertainty.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
OSTI Identifier:
1532723
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-19-22170
Journal ID: ISSN 2306-7381
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Veterinary Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2306-7381
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Biological Science; infectious diseases; forecasting; zoonotic; mosquito; vector-borne; climate change; range expansion; epidemiology

Citation Formats

Bartlow, Andrew William, Manore, Carrie Anna, Xu, Chonggang, Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann, Del Valle, Sara Y., Ziemann, Amanda, Fairchild, Geoffrey, and Fair, Jeanne Marie. Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.3390/vetsci6020040.
Bartlow, Andrew William, Manore, Carrie Anna, Xu, Chonggang, Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann, Del Valle, Sara Y., Ziemann, Amanda, Fairchild, Geoffrey, & Fair, Jeanne Marie. Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment. United States. doi:10.3390/vetsci6020040.
Bartlow, Andrew William, Manore, Carrie Anna, Xu, Chonggang, Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann, Del Valle, Sara Y., Ziemann, Amanda, Fairchild, Geoffrey, and Fair, Jeanne Marie. Mon . "Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment". United States. doi:10.3390/vetsci6020040. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1532723.
@article{osti_1532723,
title = {Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment},
author = {Bartlow, Andrew William and Manore, Carrie Anna and Xu, Chonggang and Kaufeld, Kimberly Ann and Del Valle, Sara Y. and Ziemann, Amanda and Fairchild, Geoffrey and Fair, Jeanne Marie},
abstractNote = {Infectious diseases are changing due to the environment and altered interactions among hosts, reservoirs, vectors, and pathogens. This is particularly true for zoonotic diseases that infect humans, agricultural animals, and wildlife. Within the subset of zoonoses, vector-borne pathogens are changing more rapidly with climate change, and have a complex epidemiology, which may allow them to take advantage of a changing environment. Most mosquito-borne infectious diseases are transmitted by mosquitoes in three genera: Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex, and the expansion of these genera is well documented. There is an urgent need to study vector-borne diseases in response to climate change and to produce a generalizable approach capable of generating risk maps and forecasting outbreaks. Here, we provide a strategy for coupling climate and epidemiological models for zoonotic infectious diseases. We discuss the complexity and challenges of data and model fusion, baseline requirements for data, and animal and human population movement. Disease forecasting needs significant investment to build the infrastructure necessary to collect data about the environment, vectors, and hosts at all spatial and temporal resolutions. These investments can contribute to building a modeling community around the globe to support public health officials so as to reduce disease burden through forecasts with quantified uncertainty.},
doi = {10.3390/vetsci6020040},
journal = {Veterinary Sciences},
number = 2,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {5}
}

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