Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0085-9

Title: Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

Journal Article · 02 April 2018 · Nature Geoscience

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0085-9 · OSTI ID:1532308

^[1];

^[2]; Biraud, S. C. ^[1]; Risser, M. D. ^[1];

^[3]; Gero, P. J. ^[4]; Tadić, J. ^[1]; Helmig, D. ^[5]; Xie, S. ^[6]; Mlawer, E. J. ^[7]; Shippert, T. R. ^[8]; Torn, M. S. ^[2]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth Systems Research Lab, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Atmospheric methane (CH₄) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH₄ are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH₄. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH₄ at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH₄ forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m² yr^-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH₄. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H₂O) and CH₄ to explain the observations fully. Here, the determination of CH₄ radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH₄ and the vertically resolved trends in H₂O.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1532308

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1458639; OSTI ID: 1490275

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-741331; ark:/13030/qt5gc4b6cg

Journal Information:: Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 4; ISSN 1752-0894

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 33 works

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