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Title: Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States

Abstract

We develop a highly-resolved ensemble of climate simulations and empirical relationships between weather and household energy consumption to provide one of the most detailed estimates to date for potential climate-driven changes in the United States residential energy demand under the highest greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our results indicate that more intense and prolonged warm conditions will drive an increase in electricity demand while a shorter and milder cold season will reduce natural gas demand by the mid 21st century. The environmental conditions that favor more cooling degree days in summer and reduced heating degree days in winter are driven by changes in daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum temperatures in the respective seasons. Our results also indicate that climate-driven change can potentially reverse impacts of a projected decrease in rural population on residential energy demand. These projected changes in climate-driven energy demand have implications for future energy planning and management.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1];  [3]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); The Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  2. The Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  3. RAND Corp., Santa Monica, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1531185
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1531252
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; E3SM Project
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 14; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; energy demand; regional climate change; degree days

Citation Formats

Rastogi, Deeksha, Holladay, James Scott, Evans, Katherine J., Preston, Ben L., and Ashfaq, Moetasim. Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d2.
Rastogi, Deeksha, Holladay, James Scott, Evans, Katherine J., Preston, Ben L., & Ashfaq, Moetasim. Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d2.
Rastogi, Deeksha, Holladay, James Scott, Evans, Katherine J., Preston, Ben L., and Ashfaq, Moetasim. Fri . "Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d2.
@article{osti_1531185,
title = {Shift in seasonal climate patterns likely to impact residential energy consumption in the United States},
author = {Rastogi, Deeksha and Holladay, James Scott and Evans, Katherine J. and Preston, Ben L. and Ashfaq, Moetasim},
abstractNote = {We develop a highly-resolved ensemble of climate simulations and empirical relationships between weather and household energy consumption to provide one of the most detailed estimates to date for potential climate-driven changes in the United States residential energy demand under the highest greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our results indicate that more intense and prolonged warm conditions will drive an increase in electricity demand while a shorter and milder cold season will reduce natural gas demand by the mid 21st century. The environmental conditions that favor more cooling degree days in summer and reduced heating degree days in winter are driven by changes in daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum temperatures in the respective seasons. Our results also indicate that climate-driven change can potentially reverse impacts of a projected decrease in rural population on residential energy demand. These projected changes in climate-driven energy demand have implications for future energy planning and management.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d2},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 7,
volume = 14,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {7}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab22d2

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