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Title: Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project

Abstract

There is a growing research interest in understanding extreme weather in the context of anthropogenic climate change, posing a requirement for new tailored climate data products. Here we introduce the Climate of the 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project (C20C + D&A), an international collaboration generating a product specifically intended for diagnosing causes of changes in extreme weather and for understanding uncertainties in that diagnosis. The project runs multiple dynamical models of the atmosphere-land system under observed historical conditions as well as under naturalised versions of those observed conditions, with the latter representing how the climate system might have evolved in the absence of anthropogenic interference. Each model generates large ensembles of simulations with different initial conditions for each historical scenario, providing a large sample size for understanding interannual variability, long-term trends, and the anthropogenic role in rare types of weather. This paper describes the C20C + D&A project design, implementation, strengths, and limitations, and also discusses various activities such as this special issue of Weather and Climate Extremes dedicated to “First results of the C20C + Detection and Attribution project”.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1531029
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1580837
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Weather and Climate Extremes
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Weather and Climate Extremes Journal Volume: 24 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
Netherlands
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; detection and attribution; event attribution; climate models

Citation Formats

Stone, Dáithí A., Christidis, Nikolaos, Folland, Chris, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Perlwitz, Judith, Shiogama, Hideo, Wehner, Michael F., Wolski, Piotr, Cholia, Shreyas, Krishnan, Harinarayan, Murray, Donald, Angélil, Oliver, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dittus, Andrea, Quan, Xiao-Wei, and Tadross, Mark. Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project. Netherlands: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206.
Stone, Dáithí A., Christidis, Nikolaos, Folland, Chris, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Perlwitz, Judith, Shiogama, Hideo, Wehner, Michael F., Wolski, Piotr, Cholia, Shreyas, Krishnan, Harinarayan, Murray, Donald, Angélil, Oliver, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dittus, Andrea, Quan, Xiao-Wei, & Tadross, Mark. Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project. Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206
Stone, Dáithí A., Christidis, Nikolaos, Folland, Chris, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Perlwitz, Judith, Shiogama, Hideo, Wehner, Michael F., Wolski, Piotr, Cholia, Shreyas, Krishnan, Harinarayan, Murray, Donald, Angélil, Oliver, Beyerle, Urs, Ciavarella, Andrew, Dittus, Andrea, Quan, Xiao-Wei, and Tadross, Mark. Sat . "Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project". Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206.
@article{osti_1531029,
title = {Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project},
author = {Stone, Dáithí A. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Folland, Chris and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah and Perlwitz, Judith and Shiogama, Hideo and Wehner, Michael F. and Wolski, Piotr and Cholia, Shreyas and Krishnan, Harinarayan and Murray, Donald and Angélil, Oliver and Beyerle, Urs and Ciavarella, Andrew and Dittus, Andrea and Quan, Xiao-Wei and Tadross, Mark},
abstractNote = {There is a growing research interest in understanding extreme weather in the context of anthropogenic climate change, posing a requirement for new tailored climate data products. Here we introduce the Climate of the 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project (C20C + D&A), an international collaboration generating a product specifically intended for diagnosing causes of changes in extreme weather and for understanding uncertainties in that diagnosis. The project runs multiple dynamical models of the atmosphere-land system under observed historical conditions as well as under naturalised versions of those observed conditions, with the latter representing how the climate system might have evolved in the absence of anthropogenic interference. Each model generates large ensembles of simulations with different initial conditions for each historical scenario, providing a large sample size for understanding interannual variability, long-term trends, and the anthropogenic role in rare types of weather. This paper describes the C20C + D&A project design, implementation, strengths, and limitations, and also discusses various activities such as this special issue of Weather and Climate Extremes dedicated to “First results of the C20C + Detection and Attribution project”.},
doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206},
journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
number = C,
volume = 24,
place = {Netherlands},
year = {2019},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206

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Cited by: 7 works
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