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Title: Key determinants of global land-use projections

Abstract

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

Authors:
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [1]; ORCiD logo [9];  [4]; ORCiD logo [10];  [6]; ORCiD logo [11]
  1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands)
  2. International Inst. for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  3. International Inst. for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  4. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. Wageningen Univ. and Research, The Hague (Netherlands)
  7. International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), St. Lucia, QLD (Australia)
  8. International Inst. for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Research, National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Ritsumeikan Univ., Nojihigashi (Japan)
  9. International Inst. for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Research, National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
  10. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt-Univ. zu Berlin, Berlin (Germany)
  11. International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1530840
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10368
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate-change mitigation; Environmental impact; Socioeconomic scenarios

Citation Formats

Stehfest, Elke, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Valin, Hugo, Havlik, Petr, Popp, Alexander, Kyle, Page, Tabeau, Andrzej, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Calvin, Katherine, Doelman, Jonathan C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Humpenöder, Florian, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, van Meijl, Hans, and Wiebe, Keith. Key determinants of global land-use projections. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w.
Stehfest, Elke, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Valin, Hugo, Havlik, Petr, Popp, Alexander, Kyle, Page, Tabeau, Andrzej, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Calvin, Katherine, Doelman, Jonathan C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Humpenöder, Florian, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, van Meijl, Hans, & Wiebe, Keith. Key determinants of global land-use projections. United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w.
Stehfest, Elke, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Valin, Hugo, Havlik, Petr, Popp, Alexander, Kyle, Page, Tabeau, Andrzej, Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Calvin, Katherine, Doelman, Jonathan C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Humpenöder, Florian, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, van Meijl, Hans, and Wiebe, Keith. Wed . "Key determinants of global land-use projections". United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1530840.
@article{osti_1530840,
title = {Key determinants of global land-use projections},
author = {Stehfest, Elke and van Zeist, Willem-Jan and Valin, Hugo and Havlik, Petr and Popp, Alexander and Kyle, Page and Tabeau, Andrzej and Mason-D’Croz, Daniel and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Bodirsky, Benjamin L. and Calvin, Katherine and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Humpenöder, Florian and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and van Meijl, Hans and Wiebe, Keith},
abstractNote = {Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {5}
}

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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Key characteristics of global agriculture and land use in SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3. Model results were standardized to a common value in 2010. The order of models in the legend follows the publication of land use in the SSPs, with SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5 being representedmore » by IMAGE, GLOBIOM, AIM, GCAM and MAgPIE, respectively14« less

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