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Title: Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)

Abstract

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

Authors:
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1530747
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-143284
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

Citation Formats

Chen, Min, Vernon, Christopher R., Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V., and Kraucunas, Ian P. Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0). United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019.
Chen, Min, Vernon, Christopher R., Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V., & Kraucunas, Ian P. Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0). United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019.
Chen, Min, Vernon, Christopher R., Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V., and Kraucunas, Ian P. Fri . "Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1530747.
@article{osti_1530747,
title = {Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)},
author = {Chen, Min and Vernon, Christopher R. and Huang, Maoyi and Calvin, Katherine V. and Kraucunas, Ian P.},
abstractNote = {Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 5,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {5}
}

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