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Title: The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)
  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany)
  5. Univ. of Zurich (Switzerland)
  6. Aix-Marseille University/CNRS/IRD/UAPV, Aix-en-Provence cedex (France)
  7. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
  8. Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden)
  9. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  10. The Manila Observatory, Quezon City (Philippines)
  11. Wesleyan Univ., Middletown, CT (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1530204
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 121; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate Change; Human System; Anthropogenic Climate Change; External Driver; Confidence Assessment

Citation Formats

Stone, Dáithí, Auffhammer, Maximilian, Carey, Mark, Hansen, Gerrit, Huggel, Christian, Cramer, Wolfgang, Lobell, David, Molau, Ulf, Solow, Andrew, Tibig, Lourdes, and Yohe, Gary. The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6.
Stone, Dáithí, Auffhammer, Maximilian, Carey, Mark, Hansen, Gerrit, Huggel, Christian, Cramer, Wolfgang, Lobell, David, Molau, Ulf, Solow, Andrew, Tibig, Lourdes, & Yohe, Gary. The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems. United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6.
Stone, Dáithí, Auffhammer, Maximilian, Carey, Mark, Hansen, Gerrit, Huggel, Christian, Cramer, Wolfgang, Lobell, David, Molau, Ulf, Solow, Andrew, Tibig, Lourdes, and Yohe, Gary. Fri . "The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems". United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1530204.
@article{osti_1530204,
title = {The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems},
author = {Stone, Dáithí and Auffhammer, Maximilian and Carey, Mark and Hansen, Gerrit and Huggel, Christian and Cramer, Wolfgang and Lobell, David and Molau, Ulf and Solow, Andrew and Tibig, Lourdes and Yohe, Gary},
abstractNote = {Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 2,
volume = 121,
place = {United States},
year = {2013},
month = {8}
}

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