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Title: Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment

Abstract

The magnitude and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes are expected to increase in a changing environment in ways that threaten the security of US energy-water assets. These include probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF), which are used as hydraulic design standards for highly sensitive infrastructures such as nuclear power plants and main dams. To assess the flood vulnerability due to PMP/PMF, an integrated high-resolution process-based hydro-meteorologic modeling framework was used to develop ensemble-based probabilistic flood maps based on best-available historic observations and future climate projections. A graphics processing unit–accelerated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the surface inundation areas corresponding to a total of 120 PMF hydrographs. These ensemble-based PMF maps were compared with flood maps obtained from the conventional deterministic PMP/PMF approach, revealing added information about conditional probability of flooding. Further, a relative sensitivity test was conducted to explore the effects of various factors in the framework, such as meteorological forcings, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage, and flood model input resolution and parameters. In conclusion, the proposed framework better illustrates the uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization, and hydro-meteorological factors, allowing more informed decision-making for future emergency preparation.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Tennessee Technological Univ., Cookeville, TN (United States)
  3. RAND Corp., Santa Monica, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1530096
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Hydrology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 576; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-1694
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Flood modeling; Graphics Processing Units (GPU); Probable maximum precipitation (PMP); Probable maximum flood (PMF); Probabilistic flood maps (PFMs)

Citation Formats

Gangrade, Sudershan, Kao, Shih -Chieh, Dullo, Tigstu T., Kalyanapu, Alfred J., and Preston, Benjamin L. Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.027.
Gangrade, Sudershan, Kao, Shih -Chieh, Dullo, Tigstu T., Kalyanapu, Alfred J., & Preston, Benjamin L. Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment. United States. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.027.
Gangrade, Sudershan, Kao, Shih -Chieh, Dullo, Tigstu T., Kalyanapu, Alfred J., and Preston, Benjamin L. Mon . "Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment". United States. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.027.
@article{osti_1530096,
title = {Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment},
author = {Gangrade, Sudershan and Kao, Shih -Chieh and Dullo, Tigstu T. and Kalyanapu, Alfred J. and Preston, Benjamin L.},
abstractNote = {The magnitude and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes are expected to increase in a changing environment in ways that threaten the security of US energy-water assets. These include probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF), which are used as hydraulic design standards for highly sensitive infrastructures such as nuclear power plants and main dams. To assess the flood vulnerability due to PMP/PMF, an integrated high-resolution process-based hydro-meteorologic modeling framework was used to develop ensemble-based probabilistic flood maps based on best-available historic observations and future climate projections. A graphics processing unit–accelerated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the surface inundation areas corresponding to a total of 120 PMF hydrographs. These ensemble-based PMF maps were compared with flood maps obtained from the conventional deterministic PMP/PMF approach, revealing added information about conditional probability of flooding. Further, a relative sensitivity test was conducted to explore the effects of various factors in the framework, such as meteorological forcings, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage, and flood model input resolution and parameters. In conclusion, the proposed framework better illustrates the uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization, and hydro-meteorological factors, allowing more informed decision-making for future emergency preparation.},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.027},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
number = C,
volume = 576,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {6}
}

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This content will become publicly available on June 10, 2020
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