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Title: Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability

Abstract

Cities control the majority of global human resource consumption and serve as hubs of major infrastructural networks. To offset their resource demands, cities derive goods and resources from regions well outside urban boundaries inducing stress and impacts on distal ecosystems. As cities grow, these stressors are likely to increase, depending on choices about how resource demands will be addressed through new infrastructures; hence, city governance is extremely important to future global sustainability. Yet, to support effective decision-making and infrastructure transitions, developing tangible city-scale alternative future scenarios is needed. We present a methodology for developing plausible spatially explicit alternative futures for city infrastructures and discuss the tradeoffs in land, energy, carbon, and water resources among alternative future pathways. We first estimate future city populations and urban boundaries and characterize future land cover scenarios. Future population along with residential housing and commercial characteristics are used to estimate current and future electricity and water demand. We characterize the energysheds of cities, which then become the spatial template for designing future electricity production scenarios. Future electricity mixes and spatial distributions of powerplants provide wide-ranging tradeoffs in carbon reduction, water use reduction, and land usage. Additionally, we explore future alternatives for meeting water supply demands.more » With this work, we emphasize the importance of translating scenarios into physical on-the-ground relevance in order to ensure transparent communication among city- and utility-governance. Unless spatially explicit future infrastructure scenarios are provided, we believe city-level goals will become difficult to implement, or even worse, result in unintended consequences on regional natural resources.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Baylor Univ., Waco, TX (United States)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1530071
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1529427
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 112; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-0321
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Energy-water nexus; Electricity production; Demand; Power plant siting; Consumption; Carbon emission; Water use

Citation Formats

McManamay, Ryan A., DeRolph, Christopher R., Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar, and Allen-Dumas, Melissa. Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.011.
McManamay, Ryan A., DeRolph, Christopher R., Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar, & Allen-Dumas, Melissa. Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability. United States. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.011.
McManamay, Ryan A., DeRolph, Christopher R., Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar, and Allen-Dumas, Melissa. Tue . "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability". United States. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.011.
@article{osti_1530071,
title = {Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability},
author = {McManamay, Ryan A. and DeRolph, Christopher R. and Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar and Allen-Dumas, Melissa},
abstractNote = {Cities control the majority of global human resource consumption and serve as hubs of major infrastructural networks. To offset their resource demands, cities derive goods and resources from regions well outside urban boundaries inducing stress and impacts on distal ecosystems. As cities grow, these stressors are likely to increase, depending on choices about how resource demands will be addressed through new infrastructures; hence, city governance is extremely important to future global sustainability. Yet, to support effective decision-making and infrastructure transitions, developing tangible city-scale alternative future scenarios is needed. We present a methodology for developing plausible spatially explicit alternative futures for city infrastructures and discuss the tradeoffs in land, energy, carbon, and water resources among alternative future pathways. We first estimate future city populations and urban boundaries and characterize future land cover scenarios. Future population along with residential housing and commercial characteristics are used to estimate current and future electricity and water demand. We characterize the energysheds of cities, which then become the spatial template for designing future electricity production scenarios. Future electricity mixes and spatial distributions of powerplants provide wide-ranging tradeoffs in carbon reduction, water use reduction, and land usage. Additionally, we explore future alternatives for meeting water supply demands. With this work, we emphasize the importance of translating scenarios into physical on-the-ground relevance in order to ensure transparent communication among city- and utility-governance. Unless spatially explicit future infrastructure scenarios are provided, we believe city-level goals will become difficult to implement, or even worse, result in unintended consequences on regional natural resources.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.011},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
number = C,
volume = 112,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {6}
}

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This content will become publicly available on June 25, 2020
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