Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of the Radiative Forcing and Radiative Response at Earth’s Surface

Kramer, Ryan J.; Soden, Brian J.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0137.1

Title: Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of the Radiative Forcing and Radiative Response at Earth’s Surface

Journal Article · 01 July 2019 · Journal of Climate

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0137.1 · OSTI ID:1526783

Kramer, Ryan J. ^[1]; Soden, Brian J. ^[1]; Pendergrass, Angeline G. ^[2]

Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

In this work, we analyze the radiative forcing and radiative response at Earth’s surface, where perturbations in the radiation budget regulate the atmospheric hydrological cycle. By applying a radiative kernel-regression technique to CMIP5 climate model simulations where CO₂ is instantaneously quadrupled, we evaluate the intermodel spread in surface instantaneous radiative forcing, radiative adjustments to this forcing, and radiative responses to surface warming. The cloud radiative adjustment to CO₂ forcing and the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response exhibit significant intermodel spread. In contrast to its counterpart at the top of the atmosphere, the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response at the surface is found to be positive in some models and negative in others. Also, the compensation between the temperature-mediated lapse rate and water vapor radiative responses found in top-of-atmosphere calculations is not present for surface radiative flux changes. Instantaneous radiative forcing at the surface is rarely reported for model simulations; as a result, intermodel differences have not previously been evaluated in global climate models. We demonstrate that the instantaneous radiative forcing is the largest contributor to intermodel spread in effective radiative forcing at the surface. We also find evidence of differences in radiative parameterizations in current models and argue that this is a significant, but largely overlooked, source of bias in climate change simulations.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1526783

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 32; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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