An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates

LePoire, David J.

doi:10.22339/jbh.v3i2.3210

Title: An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates

Abstract

Various qualitative models have been suggested for major historical social and technological transitions. Many of these transitions still have puzzling aspects such as the early transition from hunter-gatherer to agriculturally-based society which required dramatically increased effort. Another puzzle is the emergence of the scientific and industrial revolution in Europe despite many previous similar discoveries in other regions. Explorations of simple models with aggregate, dynamic, and nonlinear processes might lead to insights of the unique aspects of each transition. Topics include the transitions between hunter-gatherers, agricultural societies, early civilizations, market development, capitalism, industrialization, and sustainable societies with factors of land-pressures, economies of scale, suppressed growth, and chain reactions. Many types of models could be applied to these transitions. First, basic characteristics, such as width and midpoint of the transitions, are determined by analyzing historical events contributing to the transition. However, this does give much insight into the dynamics or parameters of the transition. For more understanding, each of six transitions is explored with a simple phenomenological model. In conclusion, these simplified models do not attempt to quantitatively address the details of the actual historical mechanisms Instead analogies to more natural systems are invoked to gain insights.

Authors:

LePoire, David J. ^[1]

Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019

Research Org.:: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

Contributing Org.:: Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory

OSTI Identifier:: 1526033

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Journal of Big History

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2475-3610

Publisher:: International Big History Association (IBHA)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Citation Formats


                    LePoire, David J. An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.22339/jbh.v3i2.3210.

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                    LePoire, David J. An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v3i2.3210

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                    LePoire, David J. Wed .  
"An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v3i2.3210.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1526033.

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@article{osti_1526033,

  title        = {An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates},

  author       = {LePoire, David J.},

  abstractNote = {Various qualitative models have been suggested for major historical social and technological transitions. Many of these transitions still have puzzling aspects such as the early transition from hunter-gatherer to agriculturally-based society which required dramatically increased effort. Another puzzle is the emergence of the scientific and industrial revolution in Europe despite many previous similar discoveries in other regions. Explorations of simple models with aggregate, dynamic, and nonlinear processes might lead to insights of the unique aspects of each transition. Topics include the transitions between hunter-gatherers, agricultural societies, early civilizations, market development, capitalism, industrialization, and sustainable societies with factors of land-pressures, economies of scale, suppressed growth, and chain reactions. Many types of models could be applied to these transitions. First, basic characteristics, such as width and midpoint of the transitions, are determined by analyzing historical events contributing to the transition. However, this does give much insight into the dynamics or parameters of the transition. For more understanding, each of six transitions is explored with a simple phenomenological model. In conclusion, these simplified models do not attempt to quantitatively address the details of the actual historical mechanisms Instead analogies to more natural systems are invoked to gain insights.},

  doi          = {10.22339/jbh.v3i2.3210},

  journal      = {Journal of Big History},

  number       = 2,

  volume       = 3,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019},

  month        = {Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019}

}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History
book, January 2020

LePoire, David J.; Korotayev, Andrey V.; LePoire, David J.
The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures: A Big History Perspective, p. 77-97
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_3

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Title: An Exploration of Historical Transitions with Simple Analogies and Empirical Event Rates

Abstract

Citation Formats

Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History book, January 2020

Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History
book, January 2020