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Title: Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East

Abstract

Nuclear reprocessing plants release krypton-85 that can be detected in the atmospheric air downwind from the facility. Atmospheric transport modelling is applied to determine the area over which krypton-85 emissions from undeclared reprocessing activities in the Middle East would still be detectable against the background. This is used to assess the feasibility of monitoring known reprocessing plants and detecting unknown reprocessing plants. The annual wind flow over Dimona is analyzed and it is concluded that a known reprocessing plant could be monitored with one or a few fixed monitoring stations. Unknown reprocessing plants are more difficult to detect due to the high background levels of krypton-85 and fixed stations would not be feasible. Instead, the number of air samples that have to be taken at random locations for a successful detection is calculated. Taking random air samples can present a logistical effort but can yield reliable and timely detection of clandestine reprocessing plants. This could be used for verification of an international treaty that prohibits the separation of plutonium in the Middle East.

Authors:
 [1]
  1. Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Nonproliferation and Verification Research and Development (NA-22)
OSTI Identifier:
1525304
Grant/Contract Number:  
[NA0002534]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science and Global Security
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 1]; Journal ID: ISSN 0892-9882
Publisher:
Taylor and Francis
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; 45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE

Citation Formats

Schoeppner, Michael. Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540.
Schoeppner, Michael. Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East. United States. doi:10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540.
Schoeppner, Michael. Fri . "Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East". United States. doi:10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1525304.
@article{osti_1525304,
title = {Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East},
author = {Schoeppner, Michael},
abstractNote = {Nuclear reprocessing plants release krypton-85 that can be detected in the atmospheric air downwind from the facility. Atmospheric transport modelling is applied to determine the area over which krypton-85 emissions from undeclared reprocessing activities in the Middle East would still be detectable against the background. This is used to assess the feasibility of monitoring known reprocessing plants and detecting unknown reprocessing plants. The annual wind flow over Dimona is analyzed and it is concluded that a known reprocessing plant could be monitored with one or a few fixed monitoring stations. Unknown reprocessing plants are more difficult to detect due to the high background levels of krypton-85 and fixed stations would not be feasible. Instead, the number of air samples that have to be taken at random locations for a successful detection is calculated. Taking random air samples can present a logistical effort but can yield reliable and timely detection of clandestine reprocessing plants. This could be used for verification of an international treaty that prohibits the separation of plutonium in the Middle East.},
doi = {10.1080/08929882.2018.1446540},
journal = {Science and Global Security},
number = [1],
volume = [26],
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}

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