Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

doi:10.5194/esd-2017-101

Title: Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Abstract

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones becomes more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Authors:

^[1];

^[2]; Loring, Burlen ^[1];

^[1]; Krishnan, Harinarayan ^[1]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)

Publication Date:: 2018-02-28

Research Org.:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1525259

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Earth System Dynamics

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4979

Publisher:: European Geosciences Union

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.5194/esd-2017-101.

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                    Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, & Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-101

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                    Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Wed .  
"Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-101.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1525259.

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@article{osti_1525259,

  title        = {Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols},

  author       = {Wehner, Michael F. and Reed, Kevin A. and Loring, Burlen and Stone, Dáithí and Krishnan, Harinarayan},

  abstractNote = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones becomes more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.},

  doi          = {10.5194/esd-2017-101},

  journal      = {Earth System Dynamics},

  number       = 1,

  volume       = 9,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {2}

}

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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1: The temporal average of the imposed change (°C) in sea surface temperature as prescribed by the HAPPI protocols: (a) 1.5 °C stabilization, (b) 2.0 °C stabilization.

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