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Title: Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

Abstract

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which modelmore » and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7];  [8]; ORCiD logo [9];  [4]; ORCiD logo [10];  [6]
  1. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  2. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  3. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  4. NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD (United States)
  5. Verato Inc., McLean VA (United States)
  6. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton NJ (United States)
  7. Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom). Met Office
  8. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)
  9. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
  10. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1525240
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 122; Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Nakamura, Jennifer, Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Henderson, Naomi, Emanuel, Kerry A., Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., and Zhao, Ming. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017JD027007.
Nakamura, Jennifer, Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Henderson, Naomi, Emanuel, Kerry A., Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., & Zhao, Ming. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates. United States. doi:10.1002/2017JD027007.
Nakamura, Jennifer, Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Henderson, Naomi, Emanuel, Kerry A., Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., and Zhao, Ming. Sun . "Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates". United States. doi:10.1002/2017JD027007. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1525240.
@article{osti_1525240,
title = {Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates},
author = {Nakamura, Jennifer and Camargo, Suzana J. and Sobel, Adam H. and Henderson, Naomi and Emanuel, Kerry A. and Kumar, Arun and LaRow, Timothy E. and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Wang, Hui and Wehner, Michael F. and Zhao, Ming},
abstractNote = {Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027007},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 18,
volume = 122,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {9}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey landfall: HURRICANE SANDY IMPACT ANGLE
    journal, May 2013

    • Hall, Timothy M.; Sobel, Adam H.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50395

    Tropical cyclones and climate change: Tropical cyclones and climate change
    journal, November 2015

    • Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.371

    Tropical cyclones in climate models: Tropical cyclones in climate models
    journal, November 2015

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A.
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