Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates
Abstract
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which modelmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[4];
[7];
[9];
[10];
- Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
- Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
- Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
- NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD (United States)
- Verato Inc., McLean VA (United States)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton NJ (United States)
- Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom). Met Office
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1525240
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 122; Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Nakamura, Jennifer, Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Henderson, Naomi, Emanuel, Kerry A., Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., and Zhao, Ming. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017JD027007.
Nakamura, Jennifer, Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Henderson, Naomi, Emanuel, Kerry A., Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., & Zhao, Ming. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007
Nakamura, Jennifer, Camargo, Suzana J., Sobel, Adam H., Henderson, Naomi, Emanuel, Kerry A., Kumar, Arun, LaRow, Timothy E., Murakami, Hiroyuki, Roberts, Malcolm J., Scoccimarro, Enrico, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Wang, Hui, Wehner, Michael F., and Zhao, Ming. Sun .
"Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027007. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1525240.
@article{osti_1525240,
title = {Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates},
author = {Nakamura, Jennifer and Camargo, Suzana J. and Sobel, Adam H. and Henderson, Naomi and Emanuel, Kerry A. and Kumar, Arun and LaRow, Timothy E. and Murakami, Hiroyuki and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Wang, Hui and Wehner, Michael F. and Zhao, Ming},
abstractNote = {Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027007},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 18,
volume = 122,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {9}
}
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