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Title: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century

Abstract

We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the Scenario MIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m –2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 °C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m –2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 °C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [5];  [5];  [2];  [4]; ORCiD logo [2];  [5]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [1];  [7]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2] more »;  [4];  [5];  [6] « less
  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
  2. Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD (United States)
  3. Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan); National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  5. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (The Netherlands)
  6. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  7. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH, Berlin (Germany)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1525101
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-139873
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Gidden, Matthew J., Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Steven J., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Luderer, Gunnar, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van den Berg, Maarten, Feng, Leyang, Klein, David, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan C., Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Hilaire, Jérôme, Hoesly, Rachel M., Horing, Jill D., Popp, Alexander, Stehfest, Elke, and Takahashi, Kiyoshi. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019.
Gidden, Matthew J., Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Steven J., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Luderer, Gunnar, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van den Berg, Maarten, Feng, Leyang, Klein, David, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan C., Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Hilaire, Jérôme, Hoesly, Rachel M., Horing, Jill D., Popp, Alexander, Stehfest, Elke, & Takahashi, Kiyoshi. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019.
Gidden, Matthew J., Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Steven J., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Luderer, Gunnar, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van den Berg, Maarten, Feng, Leyang, Klein, David, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan C., Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Hilaire, Jérôme, Hoesly, Rachel M., Horing, Jill D., Popp, Alexander, Stehfest, Elke, and Takahashi, Kiyoshi. Fri . "Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1525101.
@article{osti_1525101,
title = {Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century},
author = {Gidden, Matthew J. and Riahi, Keywan and Smith, Steven J. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and van den Berg, Maarten and Feng, Leyang and Klein, David and Calvin, Katherine V. and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Frank, Stefan and Fricko, Oliver and Harmsen, Mathijs and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Hilaire, Jérôme and Hoesly, Rachel M. and Horing, Jill D. and Popp, Alexander and Stehfest, Elke and Takahashi, Kiyoshi},
abstractNote = {We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the Scenario MIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m–2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 °C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m–2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 °C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 4,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

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    journal, August 2011


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    journal, August 2011


    The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
    journal, August 2011


    A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
    journal, October 2013


    A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
    journal, October 2013

    • van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C.
    • Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1

    A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions
    journal, January 2014


    Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions
    journal, December 2015


    A methodology and implementation of automated emissions harmonization for use in Integrated Assessment Models
    journal, July 2018

    • Gidden, Matthew J.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; van den Berg, Maarten
    • Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 105
    • DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.04.002

    Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels
    journal, February 2007


    The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
    journal, January 2017


    Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    journal, January 2017


    Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    journal, January 2017


    Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
    journal, January 2017


    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
    journal, January 2017


    Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
    journal, January 2017


    Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
    journal, January 2017


    The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
    journal, January 2017


    SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    journal, January 2017


    The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
    journal, January 2017


    Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
    journal, January 2017


    Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
    journal, January 2017


    The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
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    • Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.
    • Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature08823

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    • Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François
    • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074001

    The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation
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    Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 °C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges
    journal, April 2011


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    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011

    Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions
    journal, January 2013

    • Holmes, C. D.; Prather, M. J.; Søvde, O. A.
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-285-2013

    Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations
    journal, January 2013

    • Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013

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    journal, January 2015


    Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts
    journal, January 2016

    • Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 16, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-3825-2016

    Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon
    journal, January 2017

    • Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 14
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017

    Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses
    journal, January 2018

    • Westervelt, Daniel M.; Conley, Andrew J.; Fiore, Arlene M.
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 16
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-12461-2018

    Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions
    journal, January 2018


    The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series
    journal, January 2016

    • Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert
    • Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/essd-8-571-2016

    Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015)
    journal, January 2017

    • van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017

    AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6
    journal, January 2017

    • Collins, William J.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Schulz, Michael
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017

    Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)
    journal, January 2018

    • Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018

    GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
    journal, January 2019

    • Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019

    First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect
    journal, January 2019

    • Fiedler, Stephanie; Stevens, Bjorn; Gidden, Matthew
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics
    journal, January 2013

    • Lamarque, J. -F.; Shindell, D. T.; Josse, B.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013

    Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
    journal, January 2016

    • Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016

    The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
    journal, January 2016

    • O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016