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Title: Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground-Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities

Abstract

We report on high-performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite-difference code. We computed motions obeying physics-based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane-layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground-motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional-scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between-event uncertainties (τ) of ground-motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2-10 s (frequencies 0.1-5 Hz). The within-event standard deviation φ of ground-motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2-0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source-normalized ratios of intensities (3D/ 1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions withmore » median and within-event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site-specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [4]
  1. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  3. Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  4. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR)
OSTI Identifier:
1524298
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1525739; OSTI ID: 1813986
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-764289; LLNL-JRNL-757038
Journal ID: ISSN 0895-0695; 954298
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Seismological Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 90; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0895-0695
Publisher:
Seismological Society of America
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; G

Citation Formats

Rodgers, Arthur J., Anders Petersson, N., Pitarka, Arben, McCallen, David B., Sjogreen, Bjorn, and Abrahamson, Norman. Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground-Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1785/0220180261.
Rodgers, Arthur J., Anders Petersson, N., Pitarka, Arben, McCallen, David B., Sjogreen, Bjorn, & Abrahamson, Norman. Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground-Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities. United States. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180261
Rodgers, Arthur J., Anders Petersson, N., Pitarka, Arben, McCallen, David B., Sjogreen, Bjorn, and Abrahamson, Norman. Wed . "Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground-Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities". United States. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180261. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1524298.
@article{osti_1524298,
title = {Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground-Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities},
author = {Rodgers, Arthur J. and Anders Petersson, N. and Pitarka, Arben and McCallen, David B. and Sjogreen, Bjorn and Abrahamson, Norman},
abstractNote = {We report on high-performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite-difference code. We computed motions obeying physics-based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane-layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground-motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional-scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between-event uncertainties (τ) of ground-motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2-10 s (frequencies 0.1-5 Hz). The within-event standard deviation φ of ground-motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2-0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source-normalized ratios of intensities (3D/ 1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions with median and within-event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site-specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.},
doi = {10.1785/0220180261},
journal = {Seismological Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 90,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Wed Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}

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