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Title: Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change

Abstract

In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  3. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)
  4. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1524297
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-757947
Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X; 946047
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-07NA27344
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Hall, Alex, Cox, Peter, Huntingford, Chris, and Klein, Stephen. Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6.
Hall, Alex, Cox, Peter, Huntingford, Chris, & Klein, Stephen. Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change. United States. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6.
Hall, Alex, Cox, Peter, Huntingford, Chris, and Klein, Stephen. Mon . "Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change". United States. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6.
@article{osti_1524297,
title = {Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change},
author = {Hall, Alex and Cox, Peter and Huntingford, Chris and Klein, Stephen},
abstractNote = {In recent years, an evaluation technique for Earth System Models (ESMs) has arisen—emergent constraints (ECs)—which rely on strong statistical relationships between aspects of current climate and future change across an ESM ensemble. Combining the EC relationship with observations could reduce uncertainty surrounding future change. Here, we articulate a framework to assess ECs, and provide indicators whereby a proposed EC may move from a strong statistical relationship to confirmation. The primary indicators are verified mechanisms and out-of-sample testing. Confirmed ECs have the potential to improve ESMs by focusing attention on the variables most relevant to climate projections. Looking forward, there may be undiscovered ECs for extremes and teleconnections, and ECs may help identify climate system tipping points.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 4,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects
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