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Title: Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating

Abstract

Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21 cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21 cm statistics to the underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high-dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this study, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that can accurately mimic an expensive simulation of the 21 cm signal across a wide parameter space. We embed our emulator within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework in order to perform Bayesian parameter constraints over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21 cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on $${\sigma }_{8}$$. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21 cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Astronomy and Radio Astronomy Lab.
  2. Scuola Normale Superiore (SNS), Pisa (Italy)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1524233
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
The Astrophysical Journal (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: The Astrophysical Journal (Online); Journal Volume: 848; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1538-4357
Publisher:
Institute of Physics (IOP)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS; dark ages; reionization; first stars; methods: numerical; methods: statistical

Citation Formats

Kern, Nicholas S., Liu, Adrian, Parsons, Aaron R., Mesinger, Andrei, and Greig, Bradley. Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aa8bb4.
Kern, Nicholas S., Liu, Adrian, Parsons, Aaron R., Mesinger, Andrei, & Greig, Bradley. Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating. United States. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aa8bb4.
Kern, Nicholas S., Liu, Adrian, Parsons, Aaron R., Mesinger, Andrei, and Greig, Bradley. Fri . "Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating". United States. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aa8bb4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1524233.
@article{osti_1524233,
title = {Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21 cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-Ray Heating},
author = {Kern, Nicholas S. and Liu, Adrian and Parsons, Aaron R. and Mesinger, Andrei and Greig, Bradley},
abstractNote = {Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21 cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21 cm statistics to the underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high-dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this study, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that can accurately mimic an expensive simulation of the 21 cm signal across a wide parameter space. We embed our emulator within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework in order to perform Bayesian parameter constraints over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21 cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on ${\sigma }_{8}$. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21 cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.},
doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/aa8bb4},
journal = {The Astrophysical Journal (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 848,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {10}
}

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Intelligent Design: on the Emulation of Cosmological Simulations
journal, January 2011


Analysing the 21 cm signal from the epoch of reionization with artificial neural networks
journal, March 2017

  • Shimabukuro, Hayato; Semelin, Benoit
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 468, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stx734

Inhomogeneous recombinations during cosmic reionization
journal, March 2014

  • Sobacchi, Emanuele; Mesinger, Andrei
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 440, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stu377

Constraints on the star formation efficiency of galaxies during the epoch of reionization
journal, April 2016

  • Sun, G.; Furlanetto, S. R.
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 460, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stw980

ERASING THE VARIABLE: EMPIRICAL FOREGROUND DISCOVERY FOR GLOBAL 21 cm SPECTRUM EXPERIMENTS
journal, September 2014


Astropy: A community Python package for astronomy
journal, September 2013


Fast large-scale reionization simulations
journal, February 2009

  • Thomas, Rajat M.; Zaroubi, Saleem; Ciardi, Benedetta
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 393, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.14206.x

CONFIRMATION OF WIDE-FIELD SIGNATURES IN REDSHIFTED 21 cm POWER SPECTRA
journal, July 2015

  • Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan; Jacobs, Daniel C.; Bowman, Judd D.
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 807, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1088/2041-8205/807/2/L28

FOREGROUNDS IN WIDE-FIELD REDSHIFTED 21 cm POWER SPECTRA
journal, April 2015

  • Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan; Jacobs, Daniel C.; Bowman, Judd D.
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 804, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/804/1/14

A Study of Fundamental Limitations to Statistical Detection of Redshifted h i from the Epoch of Reionization
journal, September 2013

  • Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan; Udaya Shankar, N.; Subrahmanyan, Ravi
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 776, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/776/1/6

Radio Signatures of H i at High Redshift: Mapping the End of the “Dark Ages”
journal, January 2000

  • Tozzi, Paolo; Madau, Piero; Meiksin, Avery
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 528, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1086/308196

Computer Simulations of Cosmic Reionization
journal, February 2011


THE IMPACT OF POINT-SOURCE SUBTRACTION RESIDUALS ON 21 cm EPOCH OF REIONIZATION ESTIMATION
journal, September 2012

  • Trott, Cathryn M.; Wayth, Randall B.; Tingay, Steven J.
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 757, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/757/1/101

Lunar occultation of the diffuse radio sky: LOFAR measurements between 35 and 80 MHz
journal, May 2015

  • Vedantham, H. K.; Koopmans, L. V. E.; de Bruyn, A. G.
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 450, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stv746

Imaging the Epoch of Reionization: Limitations from Foreground Confusion and Imaging Algorithms
journal, January 2012

  • Vedantham, Harish; Udaya Shankar, N.; Subrahmanyan, Ravi
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 745, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/745/2/176

Modification of the 21-cm power spectrum by X-rays during the epoch of reionization
journal, June 2009


The effect of foreground subtraction on cosmological measurements from intensity mapping
journal, May 2014

  • Wolz, L.; Abdalla, F. B.; Blake, C.
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 441, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stu792

On the excitation mechanism of the 21-cm (radio-frequency) interstellar hydrogen emission line.
journal, January 1952

  • Wouthuysen, S. A.
  • The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 57
  • DOI: 10.1086/106661

Galaxy Properties and uv Escape Fractions During the Epoch of Reionization: Results from the Renaissance Simulations
journal, December 2016


Simulations and Analytic Calculations of Bubble Growth during Hydrogen Reionization
journal, January 2007

  • Zahn, Oliver; Lidz, Adam; McQuinn, Matthew
  • The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 654, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1086/509597

Comparison of reionization models: radiative transfer simulations and approximate, seminumeric models: Comparison of reionization models
journal, April 2011


Cosmic Microwave Background Constraints on the Duration and Timing of Reionization from the South pole Telescope
journal, August 2012