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Title: Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models

Abstract

Earth system models (ESMs) are the gold standard for producing future projections of climate change, but running them is difficult and costly, and thus researchers are generally limited to a small selection of scenarios. This paper presents a technique for detailed emulation of the Earth system model (ESM) temperature output, based on the construction of a deterministic model for the mean response to global temperature. The residuals between the mean response and the ESM output temperature fields are used to construct variability fields that are added to the mean response to produce the final product. The method produces grid-level output with spatially and temporally coherent variability. Output fields include random components, so the system may be run as many times as necessary to produce large ensembles of fields for applications that require them. We introduce the method, show example outputs, and present statistical verification that it reproduces the ESM properties it is intended to capture. This method, available as an open-source R package, should be useful in the study of climate variability and its contribution to uncertainties in the interactions between human and Earth systems.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP), New Britain, CT (United States)
  3. Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1524202
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-132926
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Link, Robert, Snyder, Abigail, Lynch, Cary, Hartin, Corinne, Kravitz, Ben, and Bond-Lamberty, Ben. Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019.
Link, Robert, Snyder, Abigail, Lynch, Cary, Hartin, Corinne, Kravitz, Ben, & Bond-Lamberty, Ben. Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models. United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019.
Link, Robert, Snyder, Abigail, Lynch, Cary, Hartin, Corinne, Kravitz, Ben, and Bond-Lamberty, Ben. Fri . "Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1524202.
@article{osti_1524202,
title = {Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models},
author = {Link, Robert and Snyder, Abigail and Lynch, Cary and Hartin, Corinne and Kravitz, Ben and Bond-Lamberty, Ben},
abstractNote = {Earth system models (ESMs) are the gold standard for producing future projections of climate change, but running them is difficult and costly, and thus researchers are generally limited to a small selection of scenarios. This paper presents a technique for detailed emulation of the Earth system model (ESM) temperature output, based on the construction of a deterministic model for the mean response to global temperature. The residuals between the mean response and the ESM output temperature fields are used to construct variability fields that are added to the mean response to produce the final product. The method produces grid-level output with spatially and temporally coherent variability. Output fields include random components, so the system may be run as many times as necessary to produce large ensembles of fields for applications that require them. We introduce the method, show example outputs, and present statistical verification that it reproduces the ESM properties it is intended to capture. This method, available as an open-source R package, should be useful in the study of climate variability and its contribution to uncertainties in the interactions between human and Earth systems.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1477-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 4,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

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