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Title: Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna

Abstract

To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with currentmore » fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [2];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8];  [9];  [10];  [10];  [10]; ORCiD logo [11];  [12];  [1];  [13];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Inst. of Crop Science and Resource Conservation
  2. Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Inst. of Crop Science and Resource Conservation; Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Muncheburg (Germany). Inst. of Landscape Systems Analysis
  3. West African Science Service Center on CLimate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)
  4. Univ. of Ghana, Kpong (Ghana). College of Basic and Applied Sciences, Soil and Irrigation Research Centre
  5. Centre de Coop. International pour la Recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement (CIRAD), Montpellier (France); ICRISAT International Crops Research Inst. for the Semi-arid Tropics, Bamako (Mali); Inst. National de l'Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (INERA), Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso)
  6. Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn (Germany)
  7. Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany); Potsdam inst. for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  8. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), Broadway, NY (United States)
  9. German Aerospace Center (DLR), Wessling (Germany). German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD)
  10. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Inst. for Sustainable Food Systems, Dept. of Agricultural and Biological Engineering
  11. Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany); King Abdulaziz Univ., Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Research
  12. UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Rome (Italy)
  13. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany). IMK-IFU, Inst. of Meteorology and Climate Research
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1523640
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02–5CH11231; 01LG1202A-I; 01LG1202A1-I1
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Faye, Babacar, Webber, Heidi, Naab, Jesse B., MacCarthy, Dilys S., Adam, Myriam, Ewert, Frank, Lamers, John P. A., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Ruane, Alex, Gessner, Ursula, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Boote, Ken, Shelia, Vakhtang, Saeed, Fahad, Wisser, Dominik, Hadir, Sofia, Laux, Patrick, and Gaiser, Thomas. Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40.
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Faye, Babacar, Webber, Heidi, Naab, Jesse B., MacCarthy, Dilys S., Adam, Myriam, Ewert, Frank, Lamers, John P. A., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Ruane, Alex, Gessner, Ursula, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Boote, Ken, Shelia, Vakhtang, Saeed, Fahad, Wisser, Dominik, Hadir, Sofia, Laux, Patrick, & Gaiser, Thomas. Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40.
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Faye, Babacar, Webber, Heidi, Naab, Jesse B., MacCarthy, Dilys S., Adam, Myriam, Ewert, Frank, Lamers, John P. A., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Ruane, Alex, Gessner, Ursula, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Boote, Ken, Shelia, Vakhtang, Saeed, Fahad, Wisser, Dominik, Hadir, Sofia, Laux, Patrick, and Gaiser, Thomas. Thu . "Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1523640.
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@article{osti_1523640,
title = {Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna},
author = {Faye, Babacar and Webber, Heidi and Naab, Jesse B. and MacCarthy, Dilys S. and Adam, Myriam and Ewert, Frank and Lamers, John P. A. and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Ruane, Alex and Gessner, Ursula and Hoogenboom, Gerrit and Boote, Ken and Shelia, Vakhtang and Saeed, Fahad and Wisser, Dominik and Hadir, Sofia and Laux, Patrick and Gaiser, Thomas},
abstractNote = {To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 3,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}
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DOI:  10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40
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