The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer
Abstract
In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.
- Authors:
-
[1];
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.
- National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Weather and Climate (CWC)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1523480
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012711
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., and Wahl, E. The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z.
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., & Wahl, E. The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., and Wahl, E. Tue .
"The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1523480.
@article{osti_1523480,
title = {The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer},
author = {Fasullo, J. T. and Tomas, R. and Stevenson, S. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Brady, E. and Wahl, E.},
abstractNote = {In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Oct 31 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Tue Oct 31 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 20 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Fig. 1: Proxy reconstructions and LME-simulated responses compared. European 1816 summer temperature anomalies relative to 1990–1999 in a proxy reconstructions and b from the LME, and c southeast Asian Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), an indicator of drought, and d their ensemble means over contemporaneous intervals from the LME. Stipplingmore »
All figures and tables
(11 total)
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium
journal, April 2010
- Cook, E. R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.
- Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977
The influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America during the last millennium in an isotope-enabled general circulation model
journal, January 2016
- Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC
journal, October 2015
- Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 45
ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions: ENSO Response to High-Latitude Volcanic Eruptions
journal, August 2016
- Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Karamperidou, Christina; Caballero, Rodrigo
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 16
Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
journal, February 2022
- Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kim, Hyungjun
- Nature, Vol. 602, Issue 7898
Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium
journal, April 2010
- Cook, E. R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.
- Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5977
The influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America during the last millennium in an isotope-enabled general circulation model
journal, January 2016
- Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model
journal, May 2016
- Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, Esther C.; Fasullo, John
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, Issue 5
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500
journal, March 2004
- Luterbacher, J.
- Science, Vol. 303, Issue 5663
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500
journal, March 2004
- Luterbacher, J.
- Science, Vol. 303, Issue 5663
North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation
journal, August 2009
- Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara
- Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 78, Issue 1
Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?
journal, August 2016
- Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing
journal, March 2016
- Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Good, P.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue 12
Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism
journal, February 2017
- Stevenson, Samantha; Fasullo, John T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 8
Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815
journal, June 2003
- Oppenheimer, Clive
- Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 27, Issue 2
Response of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China to Large Volcanic Eruptions
journal, February 2010
- Peng, Youbing; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Wei-Chyung
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 3
A European pattern climatology 1766–2000
journal, May 2007
- Casty, Carlo; Raible, Christoph C.; Stocker, Thomas F.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 29, Issue 7-8
Impacts of high-latitude volcanic eruptions on ENSO and AMOC
journal, October 2015
- Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Chafik, Leon; Caballero, Rodrigo
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 45
Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects: Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions
journal, June 2016
- Raible, Christoph C.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Auchmann, Renate
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 4
The Effect of Explosive Tropical Volcanism on ENSO
journal, April 2011
- McGregor, Shayne; Timmermann, Axel
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 8
Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions: VOLCANIC FORCING AND BACKGROUND CLIMATE
journal, May 2013
- Zanchettin, Davide; Bothe, Oliver; Graf, Hans F.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 10
On the climatic implications of volcanic cooling
journal, March 1998
- Lindzen, Richard S.; Giannitsis, Constantine
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 103, Issue D6
Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism
journal, February 2017
- Stevenson, Samantha; Fasullo, John T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 8
Hemispherically asymmetric volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate during
the last millennium
journal, January 2016
- Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 3
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
journal, April 2011
- Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656
Winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations: WINTER WARMING IN CMIP5 MODELS
journal, October 2016
- Zambri, Brian; Robock, Alan
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 20
The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution
journal, March 2016
- Lehner, Flavio; Schurer, Andrew P.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 6
Stratospheric Loading of Sulfur From Explosive Volcanic Eruptions
journal, November 1997
- Bluth, Gregg J. S.; Rose, William I.; Sprod, Ian E.
- The Journal of Geology, Vol. 105, Issue 6
Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty: LARGE ENSEMBLES FOR VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
journal, September 2016
- Bittner, Matthias; Schmidt, Hauke; Timmreck, Claudia
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 17
Stratospheric Loading of Sulfur From Explosive Volcanic Eruptions
journal, November 1997
- Bluth, Gregg J. S.; Rose, William I.; Sprod, Ian E.
- The Journal of Geology, Vol. 105, Issue 6
Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)
journal, January 2014
- Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Timmreck, C.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Impact of global warming on the rise of volcanic plumes and implications for future volcanic aerosol forcing: GLOBAL WARMING AND VOLCANIC PLUME RISE
journal, November 2016
- Aubry, Thomas J.; Jellinek, A. Mark; Degruyter, Wim
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 22
Major optical depth perturbations to the stratosphere from volcanic eruptions: Stellar extinction period, 1961-1978
journal, February 2001
- Stothers, Richard B.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D3
Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions
journal, January 2013
- Bothe, O.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Zanchettin, D.
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 9, Issue 3
The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to
Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 8
Interior Pycnocline Flow from the Subtropical to the Equatorial Pacific Ocean*
journal, December 1999
- Johnson, Gregory C.; McPhaden, Michael J.
- Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 29, Issue 12
A European pattern climatology 1766-2000
text, January 2007
- Casty, Carlo; Raible, Christoph; Stocker, Thomas
- Springer-Verlag
The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to
Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 8
Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)
journal, January 2011
- Schmidt, G. A.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Ammann, C. M.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 1
The year without a summer
journal, March 2015
- Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 4
Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)
journal, January 2014
- Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Timmreck, C.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions: VOLCANIC IMPACTS IN THE CMIP5 MODELS
journal, September 2012
- Driscoll, Simon; Bozzo, Alessio; Gray, Lesley J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D17
Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years
journal, August 2015
- Stoffel, Markus; Khodri, Myriam; Corona, Christophe
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 10
The year without a summer
journal, March 2015
- Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 4
“El Niño Like” Hydroclimate Responses to Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions
journal, April 2016
- Stevenson, Samantha; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Fasullo, John
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 8
A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for Asia Spanning the Past Half Millennium
journal, April 2013
- Feng, Song; Hu, Qi; Wu, Qianru
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 7
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years
journal, July 2015
- Sigl, M.; Winstrup, M.; McConnell, J. R.
- Nature, Vol. 523, Issue 7562
Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)
journal, January 2010
- Schmidt, G. A.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Ammann, C. M.
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 3, Issue 3
Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system
journal, February 2015
- Puma, Michael J.; Bose, Satyajit; Chon, So Young
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 2
Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region: VOLCANOES AND THE ASIAN MONSOON
journal, November 2010
- Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.; Cook, E. R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 22
Hemispherically asymmetric volcanic forcing of tropical hydroclimate during
the last millennium
journal, January 2016
- Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 3
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
journal, January 2011
- Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654
Major optical depth perturbations to the stratosphere from volcanic eruptions: Pyrheliometric period, 1881-1960
journal, February 1996
- Stothers, Richard B.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 101, Issue D2
North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation
journal, February 2010
- Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara
- Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 79, Issue 3-4
Effects of volcanism on tropical variability: EFFECTS OF VOLCANISM
journal, July 2015
- Maher, Nicola; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 14
Uncertainty in Model Climate Sensitivity Traced to Representations of Cumulus Precipitation Microphysics
journal, January 2016
- Zhao, Ming; Golaz, J. -C.; Held, I. M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 2
Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012
journal, August 2014
- Allan, Richard P.; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 15
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years
journal, July 2015
- Sigl, M.; Winstrup, M.; McConnell, J. R.
- Nature, Vol. 523, Issue 7562
Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815
journal, June 2003
- Oppenheimer, Clive
- Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 27, Issue 2
A time-averaged inventory of subaerial volcanic sulfur emissions
journal, October 1998
- Andres, R. J.; Kasgnoc, A. D.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 103, Issue D19
Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change
journal, May 2010
- Winton, Michael; Takahashi, Ken; Held, Isaac M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 9
Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene
text, January 2011
- Vieira, Luis Eduardo A.; Solanki, Sami K.; Krivova, Natalie A.
- arXiv
Volcanic eruptions and climate
journal, May 2000
- Robock, Alan
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 38, Issue 2
Cold decade (AD 1810–1819) caused by Tambora (1815) and another (1809) stratospheric volcanic eruption
journal, January 2009
- Cole-Dai, Jihong; Ferris, David; Lanciki, Alyson
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 22
Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing
journal, March 2016
- Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Good, P.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue 12
Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models
journal, January 2008
- Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Ammann, Caspar
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D23
Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene
journal, May 2011
- Vieira, L. E. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Krivova, N. A.
- Astronomy & Astrophysics, Vol. 531
Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?
journal, August 2016
- Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing
journal, January 2005
- Wigley, T. M. L.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, Issue D9
Assessing the evolving fragility of the global food system
journal, February 2015
- Puma, Michael J.; Bose, Satyajit; Chon, So Young
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 2
Works referencing / citing this record:
Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1‐D and 3‐D Plume Model Projections
journal, September 2019
- Aubry, T. J.; Cerminara, M.; Jellinek, A. M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 17-18
Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1-D and 3-D Plume Model Projections
text, January 2019
- Aubry, Thomas; Cerminara, M.; Jellinek, Am
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope‐Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble
journal, August 2019
- Stevenson, S.; Otto‐Bliesner, B. L.; Brady, E. C.
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Vol. 34, Issue 8
Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
text, January 2019
- Schurer, Andrew P.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Luterbacher, Jürg
- IOP Publishing
Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
journal, September 2019
- Schurer, Andrew P.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Luterbacher, Jürg
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 9
Volcanically Triggered Ocean Warming Near the Antarctic Peninsula
journal, July 2019
- Verona, L. S.; Wainer, I.; Stevenson, S.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
The Influence of Volcanic Aerosol Meridional Structure on Monsoon Responses over the Last Millennium
journal, November 2019
- Fasullo, John T.; Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Stevenson, Samantha
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 21
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.