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Title: The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer

Abstract

In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.
  2. National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Weather and Climate (CWC)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1523480
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012711
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., and Wahl, E. The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z.
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., & Wahl, E. The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z.
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., and Wahl, E. Tue . "The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer". United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1523480.
@article{osti_1523480,
title = {The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer},
author = {Fasullo, J. T. and Tomas, R. and Stevenson, S. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Brady, E. and Wahl, E.},
abstractNote = {In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 6 works
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Figures / Tables:

Fig. 1 Fig. 1: Proxy reconstructions and LME-simulated responses compared. European 1816 summer temperature anomalies relative to 1990–1999 in a proxy reconstructions and b from the LME, and c southeast Asian Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), an indicator of drought, and d their ensemble means over contemporaneous intervals from the LME. Stipplingmore » indicates regions where reconstructions lie outside of the ensemble model range for both temperature and PDSI« less

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

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