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Title: History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales

Abstract

Simulations of the US light duty vehicle stock help policy makers, investors, and auto manufacturers make informed decisions to influence the future of the stock and its associated green house gas emissions. Such simulations require an underlying framework that captures the key elements of consumer purchasing decisions, which can be uncertain. This uncertainty in a simulation’s logic is usually convolved with uncertainty in the underlying assumptions about the futures of energy prices and technology innovation and availability. By comparing simulated alternative energy vehicle (AEV) sales to historical sales data, one can assess the simulation’s ability to capture the dynamics of consumer choice, independent of many of those underlying uncertainties, thereby determining the factors that most strongly impact sales. The market for diesel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and to a lesser extent plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and all-electric vehicles, has now matured sufficiently to make such a study possible. In this work, we measure the results of the Sandia ParaChoice model under a variety of input assumptions against historical sales data. Here, we observe that (1) the underlying simulation logic is sound, capturing key drivers of consumer choice, (2) AEV model availability has a significant impact on sales, and (3) AEVmore » consumers are very likely aware of purchasing incentives and factoring those incentives into their purchasing decisions.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1512912
Report Number(s):
SAND-2015-7637J
Journal ID: ISSN 2167-4205; 665167
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
SAE International Journal of Alternative Powertrains
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2167-4205
Publisher:
SAE International
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Levinson, Rebecca Sobel, Manley, Dawn K., and West, Todd H. History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.4271/2016-01-9142.
Levinson, Rebecca Sobel, Manley, Dawn K., & West, Todd H. History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales. United States. doi:10.4271/2016-01-9142.
Levinson, Rebecca Sobel, Manley, Dawn K., and West, Todd H. Thu . "History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales". United States. doi:10.4271/2016-01-9142. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1512912.
@article{osti_1512912,
title = {History v. Simulation: An Analysis of the Drivers of Alternative Energy Vehicle Sales},
author = {Levinson, Rebecca Sobel and Manley, Dawn K. and West, Todd H.},
abstractNote = {Simulations of the US light duty vehicle stock help policy makers, investors, and auto manufacturers make informed decisions to influence the future of the stock and its associated green house gas emissions. Such simulations require an underlying framework that captures the key elements of consumer purchasing decisions, which can be uncertain. This uncertainty in a simulation’s logic is usually convolved with uncertainty in the underlying assumptions about the futures of energy prices and technology innovation and availability. By comparing simulated alternative energy vehicle (AEV) sales to historical sales data, one can assess the simulation’s ability to capture the dynamics of consumer choice, independent of many of those underlying uncertainties, thereby determining the factors that most strongly impact sales. The market for diesel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and to a lesser extent plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and all-electric vehicles, has now matured sufficiently to make such a study possible. In this work, we measure the results of the Sandia ParaChoice model under a variety of input assumptions against historical sales data. Here, we observe that (1) the underlying simulation logic is sound, capturing key drivers of consumer choice, (2) AEV model availability has a significant impact on sales, and (3) AEV consumers are very likely aware of purchasing incentives and factoring those incentives into their purchasing decisions.},
doi = {10.4271/2016-01-9142},
journal = {SAE International Journal of Alternative Powertrains},
number = 2,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {5}
}

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