Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements
Abstract
Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% (24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% (66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[3];
[4];
[6];
[7];
[1];
- Lancaster Univ., Lancaster (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany)
- Lancaster Univ., Lancaster (United Kingdom); Inst. of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, Madrid (Spain)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- UK Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1512741
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-18-25654
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences
Citation Formats
Yumashev, Dmitry, Hope, Chris, Schaefer, Kevin, Riemann-Campe, Kathrin, Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando, Jafarov, Elchin, Burke, Eleanor J., Young, Paul J., Elshorbany, Yasin, and Whiteman, Gail. Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x.
Yumashev, Dmitry, Hope, Chris, Schaefer, Kevin, Riemann-Campe, Kathrin, Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando, Jafarov, Elchin, Burke, Eleanor J., Young, Paul J., Elshorbany, Yasin, & Whiteman, Gail. Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements. United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x.
Yumashev, Dmitry, Hope, Chris, Schaefer, Kevin, Riemann-Campe, Kathrin, Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando, Jafarov, Elchin, Burke, Eleanor J., Young, Paul J., Elshorbany, Yasin, and Whiteman, Gail. Tue .
"Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements". United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1512741.
@article{osti_1512741,
title = {Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements},
author = {Yumashev, Dmitry and Hope, Chris and Schaefer, Kevin and Riemann-Campe, Kathrin and Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando and Jafarov, Elchin and Burke, Eleanor J. and Young, Paul J. and Elshorbany, Yasin and Whiteman, Gail},
abstractNote = {Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% (24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% (66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 6 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Fig. 1: Cumulative carbon emissions from thawing land permafrost simulated using specialised land surface models. CO2 component of cumulative emissions of carbon from thawing land permafrost, obtained from a SiBCASA and b JULES LSMs forced by multiple climate models (GCMs) under a range of climate scenarios out to 2300. Thickmore »
All figures and tables
(9 total)
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change
journal, January 2009
- Anthoff, David; Hepburn, Cameron; Tol, Richard S. J.
- Ecological Economics, Vol. 68, Issue 3
The importance of a surface organic layer in simulating permafrost thermal and carbon dynamics
journal, January 2016
- Jafarov, Elchin; Schaefer, Kevin
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 1
The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise
journal, October 2015
- Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.
- Nature, Vol. 526, Issue 7573
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
journal, April 2015
- Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C.
- Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, October 2017
- Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 11
A roadmap for rapid decarbonization
journal, March 2017
- Rockström, Johan; Gaffney, Owen; Rogelj, Joeri
- Science, Vol. 355, Issue 6331
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 ad
journal, January 2009
- Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 4
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs
journal, January 2014
- Hezel, P. J.; Fichefet, T.; Massonnet, F.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, Issue 4
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
journal, March 2018
- McGuire, A. David; Lawrence, David M.; Koven, Charles
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 15
Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth
journal, May 2018
- Christensen, P.; Gillingham, K.; Nordhaus, W.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 21
Multidecadal Variability in Surface Albedo Feedback Across CMIP5 Models
journal, February 2018
- Schneider, Adam; Flanner, Mark; Perket, Justin
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 4
Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming: AMOUNT AND TIMING OF PERMAFROST CARBON RELEASE
journal, February 2011
- Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Bruhwiler, Lori
- Tellus B, Vol. 63, Issue 2
Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?
journal, January 2006
- Winton, Michael
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 23
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature †
journal, September 2014
- Dell, Melissa; Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A.
- Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 52, Issue 3
CLIMATE CHANGE: Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget
journal, June 2006
- Zimov, S. A.
- Science, Vol. 312, Issue 5780
The risk of climate ruin
journal, November 2016
- Bettis, Oliver D.; Dietz, Simon; Silver, Nick G.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 140, Issue 2
Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget
journal, December 2017
- Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken
- Nature, Vol. 552, Issue 7683
Melting ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route
journal, August 2017
- Bekkers, Eddy; Francois, Joseph F.; Rojas‐Romagosa, Hugo
- The Economic Journal, Vol. 128, Issue 610
Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris Agreement
journal, August 2016
- Aldy, Joseph; Pizer, William; Tavoni, Massimo
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11
Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008
journal, January 2011
- Flanner, M. G.; Shell, K. M.; Barlage, M.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Estimating the Economic Impact of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback
journal, April 2017
- Kessler, Louise
- Climate Change Economics, Vol. 08, Issue 02
A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments
journal, December 2014
- Nowack, Peer J.; Luke Abraham, N.; Maycock, Amanda C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Measuring the Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation
journal, October 2014
- Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Herrero, Sergio Tirado; Dubash, Navroz K.
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 39, Issue 1
An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming
journal, April 2017
- Chadburn, S. E.; Burke, E. J.; Cox, P. M.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate
journal, August 2014
- Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 8
Simple Optical Models for Diagnosing Surface–Atmosphere Shortwave Interactions
journal, September 2005
- Winton, Michael
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 18
The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database: spatially distributed datasets of soil coverage and soil carbon storage in the northern permafrost regions
journal, January 2013
- Hugelius, G.; Tarnocai, C.; Broll, G.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
journal, December 2018
- Hjort, Jan; Karjalainen, Olli; Aalto, Juha
- Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
journal, April 2011
- Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656
An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land-surface model
journal, January 2015
- Chadburn, S.; Burke, E.; Essery, R.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 5
The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data
journal, January 2014
- Wei, Y.; Liu, S.; Huntzinger, D. N.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 6
Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century
journal, March 2009
- Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 4
Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability
journal, January 2018
- Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.
- Nature, Vol. 553, Issue 7688
The origin of methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf unraveled with triple isotope analysis
journal, January 2017
- Sapart, Célia J.; Shakhova, Natalia; Semiletov, Igor
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 9
A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss
journal, April 2017
- Le Bars, Dewi; Drijfhout, Sybren; de Vries, Hylke
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction
journal, March 2016
- Cai, Yongyang; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 5
Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps
journal, January 2014
- Hugelius, G.; Strauss, J.; Zubrzycki, S.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 23
Towards a balanced view of Arctic shipping: estimating economic impacts of emissions from increased traffic on the Northern Sea Route
journal, May 2017
- Yumashev, Dmitry; van Hussen, Karel; Gille, Johan
- Climatic Change, Vol. 143, Issue 1-2
Stratospheric ozone chemistry feedbacks are not critical for the determination of climate sensitivity in CESM1(WACCM): OZONE FEEDBACK IN CESM 4×CO
journal, April 2016
- Marsh, Daniel R.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Conley, Andrew J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 8
Projected 21st century changes in snow water equivalent over Northern Hemisphere landmasses from the CMIP5 model ensemble
journal, January 2015
- Shi, H. X.; Wang, C. H.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 9, Issue 5
IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks
journal, January 2017
- O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
journal, October 2015
- Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward
- Nature, Vol. 527, Issue 7577
Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris
journal, June 2016
- Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Winkelmann, Ricarda
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 7
Arctic Ice Cover, Ice Thickness and Tipping Points
journal, January 2012
- Wadhams, Peter
- AMBIO, Vol. 41, Issue 1
Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils
journal, June 2016
- Schädel, Christina; Bader, Martin K. -F.; Schuur, Edward A. G.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 10
Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO2: why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002
journal, December 2012
- Hope, Chris
- Climatic Change, Vol. 117, Issue 3
Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control
journal, April 2016
- González-Eguino, Mikel; Neumann, Marc B.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 136, Issue 2
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
journal, August 2018
- Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 33
Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement
journal, April 2018
- Sigmond, Michael; Fyfe, John C.; Swart, Neil C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous
journal, January 2016
- Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 16, Issue 6
Improving simulated soil temperatures and soil freeze/thaw at high-latitude regions in the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model
journal, January 2009
- Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Slater, Andrew G.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue F2
Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost
journal, September 2015
- Hope, Chris; Schaefer, Kevin
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Quantifying Climate Feedbacks Using Radiative Kernels
journal, July 2008
- Soden, Brian J.; Held, Isaac M.; Colman, Robert
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 14
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
journal, October 2012
- Knutti, Reto; Sedláček, Jan
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 4
A parameterization of respiration in frozen soils based on substrate availability
journal, January 2016
- Schaefer, Kevin; Jafarov, Elchin
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 7
Surface Albedo Feedback Estimates for the AR4 Climate Models
journal, February 2006
- Winton, Michael
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 3
Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks
journal, January 2017
- Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 12
On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change
journal, January 2016
- van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Enderlin, Ellyn M.; Howat, Ian M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 5
Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, March 2013
- Koven, Charles D.; Riley, William J.; Stern, Alex
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 6
Three years to safeguard our climate
journal, June 2017
- Figueres, Christiana; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Whiteman, Gail
- Nature, Vol. 546, Issue 7660
Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
journal, December 2016
- Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 2
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
journal, January 2016
- Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
journal, January 2016
- Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 2
Climate feedbacks under a very broad range of forcing
journal, January 2009
- Colman, Robert; McAvaney, Bryant
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 1
Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt
journal, February 2019
- Golledge, Nicholas R.; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Gomez, Natalya
- Nature, Vol. 566, Issue 7742
A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies
journal, November 2015
- Rubin, Edward S.; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Jaramillo, Paulina
- Energy Policy, Vol. 86
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
journal, January 2017
- Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis
journal, January 2013
- Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 5
The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis
journal, June 2011
- Stroeve, Julienne C.; Serreze, Mark C.; Holland, Marika M.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 110, Issue 3-4
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
journal, March 2009
- Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Held, H.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 13
Robust increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity under global warming: ROBUST INCREASE IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
journal, November 2013
- Meraner, Katharina; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Voigt, Aiko
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 22
Mitigation implications of an ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean: IMPLICATIONS ARCTIC ICE-FREE SUMMER
journal, January 2017
- González-Eguino, Mikel; Neumann, Marc B.; Arto, Iñaki
- Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
journal, February 2018
- Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri
- Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1
A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions
journal, January 2017
- Burke, Eleanor J.; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Ekici, Altug
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2
A parameterization of respiration in frozen soils based on substrate availability
journal, January 2015
- Schaefer, K.; Jafarov, E.
- Biogeosciences Discussions, Vol. 12, Issue 14
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
journal, January 2015
- Schleussner, C. -F.; Lissner, T. K.; Fischer, E. M.
- Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 2
An improved representation of physical permafrost dynamics in the JULES land surface model
journal, January 2015
- Chadburn, S.; Burke, E.; Essery, R.
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs
journal, January 2014
- Hezel, P. J.; Fichefet, T.; Massonnet, F.
- The Cryosphere Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous
text, January 2016
- Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko H.; Hearty, Paul
- Columbia University
Works referencing / citing this record:
Eight urgent, fundamental and simultaneous steps needed to restore ocean health, and the consequences for humanity and the planet of inaction or delay
journal, July 2019
- Laffoley, Dan; Baxter, John M.; Amon, Diva J.
- Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, Vol. 30, Issue 1
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.