Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Turner, Sean W.  D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Fazio, John; Hua, Daniel; Jourabchi, Massoud

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4

Title: Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Journal Article · 02 January 2019 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4 · OSTI ID:1512449

^[1];

^[2]; Fazio, John ^[3]; Hua, Daniel ^[3]; Jourabchi, Massoud ^[3]

Pacific Northwest National Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Portland, OR (United States)

Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on power system adequacy is rarely evaluated. Here we assess power shortfall risk for the U.S. Pacific Northwest under combined climate impacts on loads and hydropower generation. Climate change emerges as both a risk and an opportunity; potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature (annual shortfall probability is more than doubled for a business as usual policy; average shortfall event duration is halved and average maximum shortfall is reduced by up to ~60%). A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, whilst summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydro dispatch are analyzed in isolation—suggesting an important role of compound events.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1512449

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-136249

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 53 works

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