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Title: Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract

Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on power system adequacy is rarely evaluated. Here we assess power shortfall risk for the U.S. Pacific Northwest under combined climate impacts on loads and hydropower generation. Climate change emerges as both a risk and an opportunity; potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature (annual shortfall probability is more than doubled for a business as usual policy; average shortfall event duration is halved and average maximum shortfall is reduced by up to ~60%). A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, whilst summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydro dispatch are analyzed in isolation—suggesting an important role of compound events.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [3];  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  3. Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Portland, OR (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab.(PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23). Climate and Environmental Sciences Division
OSTI Identifier:
1512449
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-136249
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Citation Formats

Turner, Sean W. D., Voisin, Nathalie, Fazio, John, Hua, Daniel, and Jourabchi, Massoud. Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4.
Turner, Sean W. D., Voisin, Nathalie, Fazio, John, Hua, Daniel, & Jourabchi, Massoud. Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest. United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4.
Turner, Sean W. D., Voisin, Nathalie, Fazio, John, Hua, Daniel, and Jourabchi, Massoud. Wed . "Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest". United States. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1512449.
@article{osti_1512449,
title = {Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest},
author = {Turner, Sean W. D. and Voisin, Nathalie and Fazio, John and Hua, Daniel and Jourabchi, Massoud},
abstractNote = {Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on power system adequacy is rarely evaluated. Here we assess power shortfall risk for the U.S. Pacific Northwest under combined climate impacts on loads and hydropower generation. Climate change emerges as both a risk and an opportunity; potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature (annual shortfall probability is more than doubled for a business as usual policy; average shortfall event duration is halved and average maximum shortfall is reduced by up to ~60%). A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, whilst summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydro dispatch are analyzed in isolation—suggesting an important role of compound events.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {1}
}

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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Power plants by resource type in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. *Other comprises petroleum, solar, geothermal, and energy storage (pumped storage hydropower and battery). **Conservation is measured in MWa (i.e., annual average generation), not MW (nameplate capacity)

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    Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.