skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation

Abstract

Microphysical (MP) schemes contain parameters whose values can impact the amount and location of forecasted precipitation, and sensitivity is typically explored by perturbing one parameter at a time while holding the rest constant. Although much can be learned from these “one-at-a-time” studies, the results are limited as these methods do not allow for nonlinear interactions of multiple perturbed parameters. This study applies the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method, a robust statistical tool allowing for simultaneous perturbation of numerous parameters, to explore orographic precipitation sensitivity to changes in microphysical and environmental parameters within an environment characteristic of an atmospheric river. Results show parameters associated with snow fall speed coefficient A s and density ρ s , ice-cloud water collection efficiency (ECI), rain accretion (WRA), relative humidity, zonal wind speed, and surface potential temperature cause the largest influence on simulated precipitation. MP and environmental parameter perturbations can cause precipitation changes of similar magnitude, but results vary by location on the mountain. Different environments are also tested, with A s being the most influential MP parameter regardless of environment. Fewer MP parameters influence precipitation in a faster-wind-speed environment, possibly due to the stronger dynamical forcing upwind and different wave dynamics downwind, compared to amore » slower-wind-speed environment. Finally, perturbing MP parameters within a single scheme can result in precipitation variations of similar magnitude compared to using entirely different microphysics schemes. MOAT results presented in this study have implications for Bayesian parameter estimation methods and stochastic parameterization within ensemble forecasting.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]
  1. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, and National Center of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
  2. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California
  3. National Center of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
  4. University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF); NASA Interdisciplinary Science
OSTI Identifier:
1511783
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1612588
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0016476; NNX14AG68G
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Journal Volume: 76 Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-4928
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY; meteorology & atmospheric sciences; precipitation; cloud microphysics; orographic effects; ranking methods; numerical analysis/modeling; mountain meteorology

Citation Formats

Morales, Annareli, Posselt, Derek J., Morrison, Hugh, and He, Fei. Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-18-0301.1.
Morales, Annareli, Posselt, Derek J., Morrison, Hugh, & He, Fei. Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation. United States. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-18-0301.1.
Morales, Annareli, Posselt, Derek J., Morrison, Hugh, and He, Fei. Wed . "Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation". United States. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-18-0301.1.
@article{osti_1511783,
title = {Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation},
author = {Morales, Annareli and Posselt, Derek J. and Morrison, Hugh and He, Fei},
abstractNote = {Microphysical (MP) schemes contain parameters whose values can impact the amount and location of forecasted precipitation, and sensitivity is typically explored by perturbing one parameter at a time while holding the rest constant. Although much can be learned from these “one-at-a-time” studies, the results are limited as these methods do not allow for nonlinear interactions of multiple perturbed parameters. This study applies the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method, a robust statistical tool allowing for simultaneous perturbation of numerous parameters, to explore orographic precipitation sensitivity to changes in microphysical and environmental parameters within an environment characteristic of an atmospheric river. Results show parameters associated with snow fall speed coefficient A s and density ρ s , ice-cloud water collection efficiency (ECI), rain accretion (WRA), relative humidity, zonal wind speed, and surface potential temperature cause the largest influence on simulated precipitation. MP and environmental parameter perturbations can cause precipitation changes of similar magnitude, but results vary by location on the mountain. Different environments are also tested, with A s being the most influential MP parameter regardless of environment. Fewer MP parameters influence precipitation in a faster-wind-speed environment, possibly due to the stronger dynamical forcing upwind and different wave dynamics downwind, compared to a slower-wind-speed environment. Finally, perturbing MP parameters within a single scheme can result in precipitation variations of similar magnitude compared to using entirely different microphysics schemes. MOAT results presented in this study have implications for Bayesian parameter estimation methods and stochastic parameterization within ensemble forecasting.},
doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-18-0301.1},
journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
number = 5,
volume = 76,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {5}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0301.1

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 1 work
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share: