The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks

Gulia, L.; Rinaldi, A. P.; Tormann, T.; Vannucci, G.; Enescu, B.; Wiemer, S.

doi:10.1029/2018gl080619

Title: The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks

Journal Article · Thu Dec 06 00:00:00 UTC 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl080619 · OSTI ID:1510760

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ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)
Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan)

A systematic decay of the aftershock rate over time is one of the most fundamental empirical laws in Earth science. However, the equally fundamental effect of a mainshock on the size distribution of subsequent earthquakes has still not been quantified today and is therefore not used in earthquake hazard assessment. We apply a stacking approach to well-recorded earthquake sequences to extract this effect. Immediately after a mainshock, the mean size distribution of events, or b value, increases by 20–30%, considerably decreasing the chance of subsequent larger events. Here, this increase is strongest in the immediate vicinity of the mainshock, decreasing rapidly with distance but only gradually over time. We present a model that explains these observations as a consequence of the stress changes in the surrounding area caused by the mainshocks slip. Our results have substantial implications for how seismic risk during earthquake sequences is assessed.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1510760

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 24 Vol. 45; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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58 GEOSCIENCES
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Title: The Effect of a Mainshock on the Size Distribution of the Aftershocks

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