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Title: Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States

Abstract

Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared to drought impact, the impact of excessive rainfall on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to -34% (-17 ± 3% on average) in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long-term trend, comparable to the up to -37% loss by extreme drought (-32 ± 2% on average) from 1981 to 2016. Drought consistently decreases maize yield due to water deficiency and concurrent heat, with greater yield loss for rainfed maize in wetter areas. Excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield, and its sign varies regionally. Excessive rainfall decreases maize yield significantly in cooler areas in conjunction with poorly drained soils, and such yield loss gets exacerbated under the condition of high preseason soil water storage. Current process-based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate yield under wet conditions. Our results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois
  2. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois, National Center for Supercomputing Applications University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois
  3. Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois
  4. Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois, Department of Plant Biology University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (CABBI), Urbana, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1509942
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1509944; OSTI ID: 1510736
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0018420
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Global Change Biology Journal Volume: 25 Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; crop model; drought; extreme climate; extreme rainfall; maize production

Citation Formats

Li, Yan, Guan, Kaiyu, Schnitkey, Gary D., DeLucia, Evan, and Peng, Bin. Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States. United Kingdom: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.14628.
Li, Yan, Guan, Kaiyu, Schnitkey, Gary D., DeLucia, Evan, & Peng, Bin. Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States. United Kingdom. doi:10.1111/gcb.14628.
Li, Yan, Guan, Kaiyu, Schnitkey, Gary D., DeLucia, Evan, and Peng, Bin. Mon . "Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States". United Kingdom. doi:10.1111/gcb.14628.
@article{osti_1509942,
title = {Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States},
author = {Li, Yan and Guan, Kaiyu and Schnitkey, Gary D. and DeLucia, Evan and Peng, Bin},
abstractNote = {Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared to drought impact, the impact of excessive rainfall on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to -34% (-17 ± 3% on average) in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long-term trend, comparable to the up to -37% loss by extreme drought (-32 ± 2% on average) from 1981 to 2016. Drought consistently decreases maize yield due to water deficiency and concurrent heat, with greater yield loss for rainfed maize in wetter areas. Excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield, and its sign varies regionally. Excessive rainfall decreases maize yield significantly in cooler areas in conjunction with poorly drained soils, and such yield loss gets exacerbated under the condition of high preseason soil water storage. Current process-based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate yield under wet conditions. Our results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14628},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 7,
volume = 25,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14628

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 17 works
Citation information provided by
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