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Title: Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract

The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements calculated at stations triggered by the event. The algorithms used in ShakeAlert assume that the displacement measurements at each station are statistically independent and that there exists a linear and time-independent relation between log peak ground displacement and earthquake magnitude. Here we challenge this basic assumption using the largest dataset assembled for this purpose to date: a comprehensive database of more than 140,000 vertical-component waveforms from M4.5–M9 earthquakes occurring near Japan from 1997 through 2018 and recorded by the K-NET and KiK-net strong-motion networks. By analyzing the time-evolution of P-wave peak ground displacements for these earthquakes, we show that there is a break, or saturation, in the magnitude-displacement scaling that depends on the length of the measurement time window. We demonstrate that the magnitude at which this saturation occurs is well-explained by a simple and non-deterministic model of earthquake rupture growth. We then utilize the predictionsmore » of this saturation model to develop a Bayesian framework for estimating posterior uncertainties in real-time magnitude estimates.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA (United States)
  3. US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
OSTI Identifier:
1508560
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1510164
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-18-30809
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9313
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001; 20180700PRD1
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9313
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Earthquake Early Warning; Rupture Determinism; Earthquake scaling; Bayesian estimation

Citation Formats

Trugman, Daniel T., Page, Morgan T., Minson, Sarah E., and Cochran, Elizabeth S.. Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2018JB017093.
Trugman, Daniel T., Page, Morgan T., Minson, Sarah E., & Cochran, Elizabeth S.. Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning. United States. doi:10.1029/2018JB017093.
Trugman, Daniel T., Page, Morgan T., Minson, Sarah E., and Cochran, Elizabeth S.. Tue . "Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning". United States. doi:10.1029/2018JB017093.
@article{osti_1508560,
title = {Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning},
author = {Trugman, Daniel T. and Page, Morgan T. and Minson, Sarah E. and Cochran, Elizabeth S.},
abstractNote = {The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements calculated at stations triggered by the event. The algorithms used in ShakeAlert assume that the displacement measurements at each station are statistically independent and that there exists a linear and time-independent relation between log peak ground displacement and earthquake magnitude. Here we challenge this basic assumption using the largest dataset assembled for this purpose to date: a comprehensive database of more than 140,000 vertical-component waveforms from M4.5–M9 earthquakes occurring near Japan from 1997 through 2018 and recorded by the K-NET and KiK-net strong-motion networks. By analyzing the time-evolution of P-wave peak ground displacements for these earthquakes, we show that there is a break, or saturation, in the magnitude-displacement scaling that depends on the length of the measurement time window. We demonstrate that the magnitude at which this saturation occurs is well-explained by a simple and non-deterministic model of earthquake rupture growth. We then utilize the predictions of this saturation model to develop a Bayesian framework for estimating posterior uncertainties in real-time magnitude estimates.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JB017093},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

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This content will become publicly available on April 16, 2020
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