Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning
Abstract
The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements calculated at stations triggered by the event. The algorithms used in ShakeAlert assume that the displacement measurements at each station are statistically independent and that there exists a linear and time-independent relation between log peak ground displacement and earthquake magnitude. Here we challenge this basic assumption using the largest dataset assembled for this purpose to date: a comprehensive database of more than 140,000 vertical-component waveforms from M4.5–M9 earthquakes occurring near Japan from 1997 through 2018 and recorded by the K-NET and KiK-net strong-motion networks. By analyzing the time-evolution of P-wave peak ground displacements for these earthquakes, we show that there is a break, or saturation, in the magnitude-displacement scaling that depends on the length of the measurement time window. We demonstrate that the magnitude at which this saturation occurs is well-explained by a simple and non-deterministic model of earthquake rupture growth. We then utilize the predictionsmore »
- Authors:
-
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- US Geological Survey, Pasadena, CA (United States)
- US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1508560
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1510164
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-18-30809
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9313
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 124; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9313
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; Earthquake Early Warning; Rupture Determinism; Earthquake scaling; Bayesian estimation
Citation Formats
Trugman, Daniel T., Page, Morgan T., Minson, Sarah E., and Cochran, Elizabeth S. Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018JB017093.
Trugman, Daniel T., Page, Morgan T., Minson, Sarah E., & Cochran, Elizabeth S. Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB017093
Trugman, Daniel T., Page, Morgan T., Minson, Sarah E., and Cochran, Elizabeth S. Tue .
"Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB017093. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1508560.
@article{osti_1508560,
title = {Peak Ground Displacement Saturates Exactly When Expected: Implications for Earthquake Early Warning},
author = {Trugman, Daniel T. and Page, Morgan T. and Minson, Sarah E. and Cochran, Elizabeth S.},
abstractNote = {The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements calculated at stations triggered by the event. The algorithms used in ShakeAlert assume that the displacement measurements at each station are statistically independent and that there exists a linear and time-independent relation between log peak ground displacement and earthquake magnitude. Here we challenge this basic assumption using the largest dataset assembled for this purpose to date: a comprehensive database of more than 140,000 vertical-component waveforms from M4.5–M9 earthquakes occurring near Japan from 1997 through 2018 and recorded by the K-NET and KiK-net strong-motion networks. By analyzing the time-evolution of P-wave peak ground displacements for these earthquakes, we show that there is a break, or saturation, in the magnitude-displacement scaling that depends on the length of the measurement time window. We demonstrate that the magnitude at which this saturation occurs is well-explained by a simple and non-deterministic model of earthquake rupture growth. We then utilize the predictions of this saturation model to develop a Bayesian framework for estimating posterior uncertainties in real-time magnitude estimates.},
doi = {10.1029/2018JB017093},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth},
number = 5,
volume = 124,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}
Web of Science
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