GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
Abstract
This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.
- Authors:
- more »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1494863
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1507749; OSTI ID: 1510767
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-137098
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online) Journal Volume: 12 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
- Publisher:
- Copernicus Publications, EGU
- Country of Publication:
- Germany
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Calvin, Katherine, Patel, Pralit, Clarke, Leon, Asrar, Ghassem, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Di Vittorio, Alan, Dorheim, Kalyn, Edmonds, Jae, Hartin, Corinne, Hejazi, Mohamad, Horowitz, Russell, Iyer, Gokul, Kyle, Page, Kim, Sonny, Link, Robert, McJeon, Haewon, Smith, Steven J., Snyder, Abigail, Waldhoff, Stephanie, and Wise, Marshall. GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. Germany: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019.
Calvin, Katherine, Patel, Pralit, Clarke, Leon, Asrar, Ghassem, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Di Vittorio, Alan, Dorheim, Kalyn, Edmonds, Jae, Hartin, Corinne, Hejazi, Mohamad, Horowitz, Russell, Iyer, Gokul, Kyle, Page, Kim, Sonny, Link, Robert, McJeon, Haewon, Smith, Steven J., Snyder, Abigail, Waldhoff, Stephanie, & Wise, Marshall. GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019
Calvin, Katherine, Patel, Pralit, Clarke, Leon, Asrar, Ghassem, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Cui, Ryna Yiyun, Di Vittorio, Alan, Dorheim, Kalyn, Edmonds, Jae, Hartin, Corinne, Hejazi, Mohamad, Horowitz, Russell, Iyer, Gokul, Kyle, Page, Kim, Sonny, Link, Robert, McJeon, Haewon, Smith, Steven J., Snyder, Abigail, Waldhoff, Stephanie, and Wise, Marshall. Fri .
"GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019.
@article{osti_1494863,
title = {GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems},
author = {Calvin, Katherine and Patel, Pralit and Clarke, Leon and Asrar, Ghassem and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Cui, Ryna Yiyun and Di Vittorio, Alan and Dorheim, Kalyn and Edmonds, Jae and Hartin, Corinne and Hejazi, Mohamad and Horowitz, Russell and Iyer, Gokul and Kyle, Page and Kim, Sonny and Link, Robert and McJeon, Haewon and Smith, Steven J. and Snyder, Abigail and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Wise, Marshall},
abstractNote = {This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 12,
place = {Germany},
year = {Fri Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Fri Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model
journal, January 2016
- Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu
- Climatic Change, Vol. 136, Issue 2
The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation
journal, September 2006
- Kim, Son H.; Edmonds, Jae; Lurz, Josh
- The Energy Journal, Vol. SI2006, Issue 01
Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus
journal, May 2015
- Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Patel, Pralit
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 94
Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework
journal, September 2018
- Graham, Neal T.; Davies, Evan G. R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 9
Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications
journal, January 2011
- Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Integrated human-earth system modeling—state of the science and future directions
journal, June 2018
- Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6
International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios
journal, December 2009
- Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Krey, Volker
- Energy Economics, Vol. 31
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
journal, January 2017
- Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Earth systems: Model human adaptation to climate change
journal, August 2014
- Palmer, Paul I.; Smith, Matthew J.
- Nature, Vol. 512, Issue 7515
Cost of power or power of cost: A U.S. modeling perspective
journal, September 2017
- Muratori, Matteo; Ledna, Catherine; McJeon, Haewon
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 77
Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies
journal, January 2014
- Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 8
Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways
journal, August 2011
- Lamarque, Jean-François; Kyle, G. Page; Meinshausen, Malte
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
journal, January 2017
- Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change
journal, January 2017
- Weyant, John
- Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Influence of climate change mitigation technology on global demands of water for electricity generation
journal, March 2013
- Kyle, Page; Davies, Evan G. R.; Dooley, James J.
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 13
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
journal, January 2017
- Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Scenarios of global municipal water-use demand projections over the 21st century
journal, February 2013
- Hejazi, Mohamad; Edmonds, James; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav
- Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 58, Issue 3
Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures
journal, May 2018
- Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson
- Energy Economics, Vol. 72
Three distinct global estimates of historical land-cover change and land-use conversions for over 200 years
journal, June 2012
- Meiyappan, Prasanth; Jain, Atul K.
- Frontiers of Earth Science, Vol. 6, Issue 2
The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crop products
journal, January 2011
- Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 15, Issue 5
Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2017
- Dellink, Rob; Chateau, Jean; Lanzi, Elisa
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Assessing the Interactions among U.S. Climate Policy, Biomass Energy, and Agricultural Trade
journal, September 2014
- Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Calvin, Katherine V.
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 35, Issue 01
Evaluation of Global Onshore Wind Energy Potential and Generation Costs
journal, July 2012
- Zhou, Yuyu; Luckow, Patrick; Smith, Steven J.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 46, Issue 14
Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts: KYLE ET AL.
journal, February 2014
- Kyle, Page; Müller, Christoph; Calvin, Katherine
- Earth's Future, Vol. 2, Issue 2
C ARBON D IOXIDE E MISSIONS FROM THE G LOBAL C EMENT I NDUSTRY
journal, November 2001
- Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Martin, Nathan
- Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 26, Issue 1
Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison
journal, July 2018
- Bauer, Nico; Rose, Steven K.; Fujimori, Shinichiro
- Climatic Change
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence‐Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios
journal, March 2018
- Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert
- Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 3
Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global
climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities
journal, January 2016
- Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 15
Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion, 1850-2000: HISTORICAL BC/OC EMISSIONS
journal, May 2007
- Bond, Tami C.; Bhardwaj, Ekta; Dong, Rong
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 21, Issue 2
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions
journal, January 2014
- Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; Hallegatte, Stéphane
- Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3
Global Energy and CO2 to the Year 2050
journal, July 1983
- Edmonds, Joe; Reilly, John
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy
journal, May 2009
- Wise, M.; Calvin, K.; Thomson, A.
- Science, Vol. 324, Issue 5931
Global-scale gridded estimates of thermoelectric power and manufacturing water use: GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF INDUSTRIAL WATER USE
journal, April 2005
- Vassolo, Sara; Döll, Petra
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 41, Issue 4
Land-use change and the carbon cycle
journal, August 1995
- Houghton, R. A.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 1, Issue 4
gcamdata: An R Package for Preparation, Synthesis, and Tracking of Input Data for the GCAM Integrated Human-Earth Systems Model
journal, January 2019
- Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Dorheim, Kalyn; Cui, Ryna
- Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 7
Global and regional potential for bioenergy from agricultural and forestry residue biomass
journal, February 2010
- Gregg, Jay S.; Smith, Steven J.
- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 15, Issue 3
A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0
journal, January 2015
- Hartin, C. A.; Patel, P.; Schwarber, A.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 4
The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
journal, January 2017
- O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Ebi, Kristie L.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
The WITCH Model: Structure, Baseline, Solutions
journal, January 2007
- Bosetti, Valentina; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo
- SSRN Electronic Journal
SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2017
- Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Masui, Toshihiko
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
journal, January 2017
- Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison
journal, October 2017
- Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 11
The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100
journal, January 2017
- Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Economic and Physical Modeling of land use in gcam 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon
journal, May 2014
- Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Kyle, Page
- Climate Change Economics, Vol. 05, Issue 02
Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets
journal, October 2013
- Calvin, Katherine; Wise, Marshall; Kyle, Page
- Climatic Change, Vol. 123, Issue 3-4
Global energy production and use to the year 2050
journal, June 1983
- Edmonds, Jae; Reilly, John
- Energy, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
journal, January 2017
- Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine; Fujimori, Shinichiro
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
An Assessment of World Hydrocarbon Resources
journal, November 1997
- Rogner, H-H.
- Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 22, Issue 1
Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country, sector, and cost
journal, July 2010
- Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi
- Energy Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 7
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
journal, January 2017
- Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market
journal, April 1993
- Clarke, John F.; Edmonds, J. A.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Income and Pollutant Emissions in the ObjECTS MiniCAM Model
journal, March 2005
- Smith, Steven J.
- The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 14, Issue 1
A long-term global energy- economic model of carbon dioxide release from fossil fuel use
journal, April 1983
- Edmonds, Jae; Reilly, John
- Energy Economics, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework
journal, January 2014
- Hejazi, Mohamad; Edmonds, James; Clarke, Leon
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 81
What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?
journal, November 2016
- Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.
- Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 85
An integrated assessment of global and regional water demands for electricity generation to 2095
journal, February 2013
- Davies, Evan G. R.; Kyle, Page; Edmonds, James A.
- Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 52