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Title: Inter-annual variability of wind and solar electricity generation and capacity values in Texas

Journal Article · · Environmental Research Letters
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
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As power systems shift towards increasing wind and solar electricity generation, inter-annual variability (IAV) of wind and solar resource and generation will pose increasing challenges to power system planning and operations. To help gauge these challenges to the power system, we quantify IAV of wind and solar resource and electricity generation across the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power system, then assess the IAV of wind and solar electricity generation during peak-load hours (i.e., IAV of wind and solar capacity values) for the current ERCOT wind and solar generator fleet. To do so, we leverage the long timespan of four reanalysis datasets with the high resolution of grid integration datasets. We find the IAV (quantified as the coefficient of variation) of wind generation ranges from 2.3%-11% across ERCOT, while the IAV of solar generation ranges from 1.7%-5% across ERCOT. We also find significant seasonal and regional variability in the IAV of wind and solar generation, highlighting the importance of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales when planning and operating the power system. In addition, the IAV of the current wind and solar fleets' capacity values (defined as generation during peak load hours) are larger than the IAV of the same fleets' capacity factors. IAV of annual generation and capacity values of wind and solar could impact operations and planning in several ways, e.g. through annual emissions, meeting emission reduction targets, and investment needs to maintain capacity adequacy.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1507212
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1507682
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5D00-72414
Journal Information:
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 4; ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 15 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Figures / Tables (8)

Table 1(p. 3)table Table 1
Table 2(p. 5)table Table 2
Figure 1(p. 6)figure Figure 1
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Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
17 WIND ENERGY
14 SOLAR ENERGY
inter-annual variability
IAV
wind
solar
electricity
generation
Electric Reliability Council of Texas
ERCOT