skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model

Abstract

The biomass scenario model (BSM) is a dynamic model of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain in the U.S.A., developed during a multi-year analysis effort conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), under sponsorship from the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). The BSM project, which received the 2018 Applications Award by the International System Dynamics Society, has supported collaborative analyses, developed scenarios for industry development and facilitated stakeholder engagement. We summarize insights gained from the BSM project that may be useful to other large-scale dynamic modeling efforts. We summarize the project focus, the analysis process, key outcomes and observations on successful execution of such a product. Key points include the value of a multidisciplinary team with clear roles, engagement of experts and stakeholders, and use and reuse of simple, modular structures. As a result, the overall effort suggests that these practices may aid long-term, team-focused, multi-stakeholder modeling efforts.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [2]
  1. Peterson Group (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  3. Lexidyne LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1506945
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1503916
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-72627
Journal ID: ISSN 0883-7066
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308; AC36‐08GO28308
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
System Dynamics Review
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 35; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0883-7066
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; system dynamics; simulation; biomass scenario model

Citation Formats

Peterson, Steve, Bush, Brian, Inman, Daniel, Newes, Emily, Schwab, Amy, Stright, Dana, and Vimmerstedt, Laura. Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1002/sdr.1620.
Peterson, Steve, Bush, Brian, Inman, Daniel, Newes, Emily, Schwab, Amy, Stright, Dana, & Vimmerstedt, Laura. Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model. United States. doi:10.1002/sdr.1620.
Peterson, Steve, Bush, Brian, Inman, Daniel, Newes, Emily, Schwab, Amy, Stright, Dana, and Vimmerstedt, Laura. Thu . "Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model". United States. doi:10.1002/sdr.1620. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1506945.
@article{osti_1506945,
title = {Lessons from a large-scale systems dynamics modeling project: the example of the biomass scenario model},
author = {Peterson, Steve and Bush, Brian and Inman, Daniel and Newes, Emily and Schwab, Amy and Stright, Dana and Vimmerstedt, Laura},
abstractNote = {The biomass scenario model (BSM) is a dynamic model of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain in the U.S.A., developed during a multi-year analysis effort conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), under sponsorship from the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). The BSM project, which received the 2018 Applications Award by the International System Dynamics Society, has supported collaborative analyses, developed scenarios for industry development and facilitated stakeholder engagement. We summarize insights gained from the BSM project that may be useful to other large-scale dynamic modeling efforts. We summarize the project focus, the analysis process, key outcomes and observations on successful execution of such a product. Key points include the value of a multidisciplinary team with clear roles, engagement of experts and stakeholders, and use and reuse of simple, modular structures. As a result, the overall effort suggests that these practices may aid long-term, team-focused, multi-stakeholder modeling efforts.},
doi = {10.1002/sdr.1620},
journal = {System Dynamics Review},
number = 1,
volume = 35,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Supply chain modularity in system dynamics: A. Elmasry and A. Größler: Supply Chain Modularity in System Dynamics
journal, June 2018

  • Elmasry, Aly; Größler, Andreas
  • System Dynamics Review, Vol. 34, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1610

Insiders’ Views of the Valley of Death: Behavioral and Institutional Perspectives
journal, December 2013

  • Wolfe, Amy K.; Bjornstad, David J.; Shumpert, Barry L.
  • BioScience, Vol. 64, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bit015

The rediscovery of industrial dynamics: the contribution of system dynamics to supply chain management in a dynamic and fragmented world
journal, October 2005

  • Akkermans, Henk; Dellaert, Nico
  • System Dynamics Review, Vol. 21, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/sdr.317

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics
journal, May 2012


Sustainable and renewable energy supply chain: A system dynamics overview
journal, February 2018

  • Saavedra M., M. Ricardo; de O. Fontes, Cristiano Hora; M. Freires, Francisco Gaudêncio
  • Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 82
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.033

Application of a variance‐based sensitivity analysis method to the Biomass Scenario Learning Model
journal, July 2017

  • Jadun, Paige; Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian W.
  • System Dynamics Review, Vol. 33, Issue 3-4
  • DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1594

Growing a sustainable biofuels industry: economics, environmental considerations, and the role of the Conservation Reserve Program
journal, May 2013

  • Clark, Christopher M.; Lin, Yolanda; Bierwagen, Britta G.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025016