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Title: Potential Energy Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Exploring Key Leverage Points through Scenario Screening and Analysis

Abstract

Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies could transform the transportation system over the coming decades, but face vehicle and systems engineering challenges, as well as technological, economic, demographic, and regulatory issues. The authors have developed a system dynamics model for generating, analyzing, and screening self-consistent CAV adoption scenarios. Results can support selection of scenarios for subsequent computationally intensive study using higher-resolution models. The potential for and barriers to large-scale adoption of CAVs have been analyzed using preliminary quantitative data and qualitative understandings of system relationships among stakeholders across the breadth of these issues. Although they are based on preliminary data, the results map possibilities for achieving different levels of CAV adoption and system-wide fuel use and demonstrate the interplay of behavioral parameters such as how consumers value their time versus financial parameters such as operating cost. By identifying the range of possibilities, estimating the associated energy and transportation service outcomes, and facilitating screening of scenarios for more detailed analysis, this work could inform transportation planners, researchers, and regulators.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)
OSTI Identifier:
1506656
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-72017
Journal ID: ISSN 0361-1981
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Transportation Research Record
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Transportation Research Record; Journal ID: ISSN 0361-1981
Publisher:
National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; connected vehicles; automated vehicles; smart vehicles; vehicle adoption; technology; transportation systems; system dynamics

Citation Formats

Bush, Brian, Vimmerstedt, Laura, and Gonder, Jeff. Potential Energy Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Exploring Key Leverage Points through Scenario Screening and Analysis. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1177/0361198119838840.
Bush, Brian, Vimmerstedt, Laura, & Gonder, Jeff. Potential Energy Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Exploring Key Leverage Points through Scenario Screening and Analysis. United States. doi:10.1177/0361198119838840.
Bush, Brian, Vimmerstedt, Laura, and Gonder, Jeff. Wed . "Potential Energy Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Exploring Key Leverage Points through Scenario Screening and Analysis". United States. doi:10.1177/0361198119838840.
@article{osti_1506656,
title = {Potential Energy Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Exploring Key Leverage Points through Scenario Screening and Analysis},
author = {Bush, Brian and Vimmerstedt, Laura and Gonder, Jeff},
abstractNote = {Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies could transform the transportation system over the coming decades, but face vehicle and systems engineering challenges, as well as technological, economic, demographic, and regulatory issues. The authors have developed a system dynamics model for generating, analyzing, and screening self-consistent CAV adoption scenarios. Results can support selection of scenarios for subsequent computationally intensive study using higher-resolution models. The potential for and barriers to large-scale adoption of CAVs have been analyzed using preliminary quantitative data and qualitative understandings of system relationships among stakeholders across the breadth of these issues. Although they are based on preliminary data, the results map possibilities for achieving different levels of CAV adoption and system-wide fuel use and demonstrate the interplay of behavioral parameters such as how consumers value their time versus financial parameters such as operating cost. By identifying the range of possibilities, estimating the associated energy and transportation service outcomes, and facilitating screening of scenarios for more detailed analysis, this work could inform transportation planners, researchers, and regulators.},
doi = {10.1177/0361198119838840},
journal = {Transportation Research Record},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

Journal Article:
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This content will become publicly available on April 3, 2020
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