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Title: Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California

Abstract

Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30-40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4];  [5];  [5]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Engineering Lab. Facility, Advanced Power and Energy Program, and Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  2. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  3. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Engineering Lab. Facility, Advanced Power and Energy Program, and Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
  4. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group
  5. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Technologies Area
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Building Technologies Office (EE-5B)
OSTI Identifier:
1506351
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1564296
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC02-05CH11231]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Applied Energy
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 225; Journal Issue: C]; Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Building Energy Demand; Electric Grid; Climate Change Impacts; Heating Electrification Effects

Citation Formats

Tarroja, Brian, Chiang, Felicia, AghaKouchak, Amir, Samuelsen, Scott, Raghavan, Shuba V., Wei, Max, Sun, Kaiyu, and Hong, Tianzhen. Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.003.
Tarroja, Brian, Chiang, Felicia, AghaKouchak, Amir, Samuelsen, Scott, Raghavan, Shuba V., Wei, Max, Sun, Kaiyu, & Hong, Tianzhen. Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California. United States. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.003.
Tarroja, Brian, Chiang, Felicia, AghaKouchak, Amir, Samuelsen, Scott, Raghavan, Shuba V., Wei, Max, Sun, Kaiyu, and Hong, Tianzhen. Sat . "Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California". United States. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.003. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1506351.
@article{osti_1506351,
title = {Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California},
author = {Tarroja, Brian and Chiang, Felicia and AghaKouchak, Amir and Samuelsen, Scott and Raghavan, Shuba V. and Wei, Max and Sun, Kaiyu and Hong, Tianzhen},
abstractNote = {Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30-40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.003},
journal = {Applied Energy},
number = [C],
volume = [225],
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}

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