Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?
Abstract
Abstract Climate change intensifies the Earth's hydrologic cycle, which has far‐reaching consequences including water availability, agricultural production, and electric power generation. The rate of intensification projected by state‐of‐the‐art global climate models (GCMs) with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, however, is highly uncertain. Thackeray et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079698 ) show that these uncertainties are related to how GCMs distribute future precipitation by either strongly increasing extreme precipitation at the cost of nonextreme events or by increasing nonextreme precipitation at the cost of extreme precipitation events. These results could help to constrain uncertainties in future hydrologic cycle intensification, thereby improving our understanding of future water resource availability and extreme hydrologic events.
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1506128
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐FC02‐97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 46 Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Prein, Andreas F., and Pendergrass, Angeline G. Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL081529.
Prein, Andreas F., & Pendergrass, Angeline G. Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081529
Prein, Andreas F., and Pendergrass, Angeline G. Tue .
"Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081529.
@article{osti_1506128,
title = {Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?},
author = {Prein, Andreas F. and Pendergrass, Angeline G.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Climate change intensifies the Earth's hydrologic cycle, which has far‐reaching consequences including water availability, agricultural production, and electric power generation. The rate of intensification projected by state‐of‐the‐art global climate models (GCMs) with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, however, is highly uncertain. Thackeray et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079698 ) show that these uncertainties are related to how GCMs distribute future precipitation by either strongly increasing extreme precipitation at the cost of nonextreme events or by increasing nonextreme precipitation at the cost of extreme precipitation events. These results could help to constrain uncertainties in future hydrologic cycle intensification, thereby improving our understanding of future water resource availability and extreme hydrologic events.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081529},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 7,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Apr 09 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Tue Apr 09 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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