Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization
Abstract
Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6-km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately tenfold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low-levelmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[3];
[1]
- Department of the Geophysical SciencesThe University of Chicago Chicago IL USA
- Courant Institute of Mathematical SciencesNew York University New York NY USA
- Department of Earth System ScienceStanford University Stanford CA USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Krell Institute, Ames, IA (United States); Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1504807
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1504811; OSTI ID: 1610361
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FG02-97ER25308; SC0014205
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Journal Volume: 11 Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1942-2466
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY; tropical cyclone; action minimization; rapid intensification; WRF
Citation Formats
Plotkin, David A., Webber, Robert J., O'Neill, Morgan E., Weare, Jonathan, and Abbot, Dorian S. Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018MS001419.
Plotkin, David A., Webber, Robert J., O'Neill, Morgan E., Weare, Jonathan, & Abbot, Dorian S. Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001419
Plotkin, David A., Webber, Robert J., O'Neill, Morgan E., Weare, Jonathan, and Abbot, Dorian S. Mon .
"Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001419.
@article{osti_1504807,
title = {Maximizing Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity With Action Minimization},
author = {Plotkin, David A. and Webber, Robert J. and O'Neill, Morgan E. and Weare, Jonathan and Abbot, Dorian S.},
abstractNote = {Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high resolution. Further, models often fail to capture the process of rapid intensification, which is a distinguishing feature of many intense TCs. Understanding rapid intensification is especially important in the context of global warming, which may increase the frequency of intense TCs. To better leverage computational resources for the study of rapid intensification, we introduce an action minimization algorithm applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting and WRFPLUS models. Action minimization nudges the model into forming more intense TCs than it otherwise would; it does so via the maximum likelihood path in a stochastic formulation of the model, thereby allowing targeted study of intensification mechanisms. We apply action minimization to simulations of Hurricanes Danny (2015) and Fred (2009) at 6-km resolution to demonstrate that the algorithm consistently intensifies TCs via physically plausible pathways. We show an approximately tenfold computational savings using action minimization to study the tail of the TC intensification distribution. Further, for Hurricanes Danny and Fred, action minimization produces perturbations that preferentially reduce low-level shear as compared to upper-level shear, at least above a threshold of approximately 4 m/s. We also demonstrate that asymmetric, time-dependent patterns of heating can cause significant TC intensification beyond symmetric, azimuthally averaged heating and find a regime of nonlinear response to asymmetric heating that has not been extensively studied in previous work.},
doi = {10.1029/2018MS001419},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = 4,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}
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