Constraining a Historical Black Carbon Emission Inventory of the United States for 1960–2000

Sun, T.; Liu, L.; Flanner, M. G.; Kirchstetter, T. W.; Jiao, C.; Preble, C. V.; Chang, W. L.; Bond, T. C.

doi:10.1029/2018JD030201

Title: Constraining a Historical Black Carbon Emission Inventory of the United States for 1960–2000

Journal Article · 03 April 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030201 · OSTI ID:1504799

^[1]; Liu, L. ^[1];

^[2]; Kirchstetter, T. W. ^[3]; Jiao, C. ^[2]; Preble, C. V. ^[4]; Chang, W. L. ^[5];

^[1]

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL USA
Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Berkeley CA USA, Energy Technologies Area Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Berkeley CA USA
Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL USA

Abstract We present an observationally constrained United States black carbon emission inventory with explicit representation of activity and technology between 1960 and 2000. We compare measured coefficient of haze data in California and New Jersey between 1965 and 2000 with predicted concentration trends and attribute discrepancies between observations and predicted concentrations among several sources based on seasonal and weekly patterns in observations. Emission factors for sources with distinct fuel trends are then estimated by comparing fuel and concentration trends and further substantiated by in‐depth examination of emission measurements. We recommend (1) increasing emission factors for preregulation vehicles by 80–250%; (2) increasing emission factors for residential heating stoves and boilers by 70% to 200% for 1980s and before; (3) explicitly representing naturally aspired off‐road engines for 1980s and before; and (4) explicitly representing certified wood stoves after 1985. We also evaluate other possible sources for discrepancy between model and measurement, including bias in modeled meteorology, subgrid spatial heterogeneity of concentrations, and inconsistencies in reported fuel consumption. The updated U.S. emissions are higher than the a priori estimate by 80% between 1960 and 1980, totaling 690 Gg/year in 1960 and 620 Gg/year in 1970 (excluding open burning). The revised inventory shows a strongly decreasing trend that was present in the observations but missing in the a priori inventory.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1504799

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 124; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, S. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9001-2009	journal	January 2009

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