skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

This content will become publicly available on March 19, 2020

Title: Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of Miami Miami FL USA
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1501951
Grant/Contract Number:  
DE‐SC0019433
Resource Type:
Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 46 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Zhang, Wei, and Kirtman, Ben. Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL081307.
Zhang, Wei, & Kirtman, Ben. Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL081307.
Zhang, Wei, and Kirtman, Ben. Tue . "Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL081307.
@article{osti_1501951,
title = {Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model},
author = {Zhang, Wei and Kirtman, Ben},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081307},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 6,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
This content will become publicly available on March 19, 2020
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 1 work
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability
journal, June 2005


Diagnosis of Decadal Predictability of Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature in the GFDL CM2.1 Model
journal, August 2017


Changes in extreme climate events in eastern China during 1960–2013: A case study of the Huaihe River Basin
journal, September 2015


Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting
journal, October 1998


The Community Climate System Model Version 4
journal, October 2011

  • Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1

Interactive coupled ensemble: A new coupling strategy for CGCMs: INTERACTIVE COUPLED ENSEMBLE
journal, May 2002

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Shukla, J.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2002GL014834

Interannual to Decadal Predictability of Tropical and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
journal, June 2007


The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation
journal, October 2015


A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science
journal, July 2018


Lanczos Filtering in One and Two Dimensions
journal, August 1979


WWBs, ENSO predictability, the spring barrier and extreme events: WWBs and ENSO Predictability
journal, September 2014

  • Lopez, Hosmay; Kirtman, Ben P.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021908

Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability
journal, January 1997


Estimating the limit of decadal-scale climate predictability using observational data
journal, May 2015


Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic
journal, March 2009

  • Ting, Mingfang; Kushnir, Yochanan; Seager, Richard
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2561.1

On the Persistence and Predictability Properties of North Atlantic Climate Variability
journal, January 2011


Antarctic Sea Ice Climatology, Variability, and Late Twentieth-Century Change in CCSM4
journal, July 2012

  • Landrum, Laura; Holland, Marika M.; Schneider, David P.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00289.1

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
journal, May 2008

  • Keenlyside, N. S.; Latif, M.; Jungclaus, J.
  • Nature, Vol. 453, Issue 7191
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature06921

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
journal, April 2012

  • Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Halloran, Paul R.
  • Nature, Vol. 484, Issue 7393
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature10946

What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?
journal, January 2012


Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow
journal, March 1963


Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models
journal, November 2013

  • Gupta, Alexander Sen; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Brown, Jaclyn N.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1

Comment on "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation"
journal, June 2016


Annual Cycle of Pacific–North American Seasonal Predictability Associated with Different Phases of ENSO
journal, December 1998


Subsurface Nonlinear Dynamical Heating and ENSO Asymmetry: Subsurface NDH and ENSO asymmetry
journal, December 2017

  • Hayashi, Michiya; Jin, Fei-Fei
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075771

Temporal–Spatial Distribution of Atmospheric Predictability Limit by Local Dynamical Analogs
journal, October 2011


AMO’s structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations
journal, March 2013


A study of atmosphere-ocean predictability on long time scales
journal, June 2000


A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO
journal, January 2015


Ocean eddies and climate predictability
journal, December 2017

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo
  • Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Vol. 27, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1063/1.4990034

Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model
journal, August 2007


A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)
journal, August 2008

  • Carton, James A.; Giese, Benjamin S.
  • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1175/2007MWR1978.1

Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts
journal, January 1987


The Influence of Atmospheric Noise and Uncertainty in Ocean Initial Conditions on the Limit of Predictability in a Coupled GCM
journal, July 2008


Spatial distribution and temporal trends in precipitation extremes over the Hengduan Mountains region, China, from 1961 to 2012
journal, October 2014


Internal Atmospheric Dynamics and Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Variability
journal, July 2005

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Pegion, Kathy; Kinter, Saul M.
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 62, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS3449.1

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction
journal, April 2014

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Min, Dughong; Infanti, Johnna M.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1

Estimate of the Predictability of Boreal Summer and Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations from Observations
journal, August 2011

  • Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Jianping; Seo, Kyong-Hwan
  • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011MWR3571.1

NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability: NAO AS A PREDICTOR OF NHT VARIABILITY
journal, October 2013

  • Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Jin, Fei-Fei
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 20
  • DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057877

The prospects for seasonal forecasting—A review paper
journal, July 1994

  • Palmer, T. N.; Anderson, D. L. T.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 120, Issue 518
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.49712051802

Systematic Estimates of Initial-Value Decadal Predictability for Six AOGCMs
journal, March 2012


Observed Decadal North Atlantic Tripole SST Variability. Part I: Weather Noise Forcing and Coupled Response
journal, January 2012

  • Fan, Meizhu; Schneider, Edwin K.
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 69, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-018.1

Centennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty
journal, January 2014


How weather impacts the forced climate response
journal, May 2011

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 11-12
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1084-3

A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability
journal, September 2011

  • Latif, Mojib; Keenlyside, Noel S.
  • Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Vol. 58, Issue 17-18
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2010.10.066

Toward linking weather and climate in the interactive ensemble NCAR climate model
journal, January 2009

  • Kirtman, Ben P.; Straus, David M.; Min, Dughong
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 13
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038389

Atlantic near-term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream: ATLANTIC NEAR-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY
journal, April 2016

  • Siqueira, Leo; Kirtman, Ben P.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068694

Long‐Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems of Superparameterized CAM and the Response of CAM
journal, September 2018

  • Chen, Gino; Kirtman, Ben P.
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001339

Low-Latitude Freshwater Influence on Centennial Variability of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
journal, December 2004

  • Vellinga, Michael; Wu, Peili
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 23
  • DOI: 10.1175/3219.1

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability
journal, January 2014


Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and atmospheric predictability research
journal, October 2006

  • Chen, Baohua; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang
  • Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, Vol. 49, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11430-006-1111-0

Weather Noise Forcing of Surface Climate Variability
journal, September 2007

  • Schneider, Edwin K.; Fan, Meizhu
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 64, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS4026.1

Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change
journal, January 2010


Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory
journal, December 1976


Changes in aridity index and reference evapotranspiration over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau in China during 1960–2012
journal, October 2014


Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations
journal, May 2015

  • McCarthy, Gerard D.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Hirschi, Joël J. -M.
  • Nature, Vol. 521, Issue 7553
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature14491

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering
journal, May 2017

  • Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.
  • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 9, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000787

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations
journal, September 2012


Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006)
journal, May 2008

  • Smith, Thomas M.; Reynolds, Richard W.; Peterson, Thomas C.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1