Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies

Journal Article · 30 September 2015 · IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2015.2456019 · OSTI ID:1501374

Munoz, Francisco D. ^[1]; Mills, Andrew D. ^[2]

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1. Univ. Adolfo Ibez, Santiago (Chile)
2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

There exist several different reliability-and approximation-based methods to determine the contribution of solar resources toward resource adequacy. However, most of these approaches require knowing in advance the installed capacities of both conventional and solar generators. This is a complication since generator capacities are actually decision variables in capacity planning studies. In this paper, we study the effect of time resolution and solar PV penetration using a planning model that accounts for the full distribution of generator outages and solar resource variability. We also describe a modification of a standard deterministic planning model that enforces a resource adequacy target through a reserve margin constraint. Our numerical experiments show that at least 50 days worth of data are necessary to approximate the results of the full-resolution model with a maximum error of 2.5% on costs and capacity. We also show that the amount of displaced capacity of conventional generation decreases rapidly as the penetration of solar PV increases. We find that using an exogenously defined and constant capacity value based on time-series data can yield relatively accurate results for small penetration levels. For higher penetration levels, the modified deterministic planning model better captures avoided costs and the decreasing value of solar PV.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 1501374
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, Journal Name: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 6; ISSN 1949-3029
• Publisher: IEEECopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English