Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
Abstract
Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K–1 globally, 4–5% K–1 over land and 2–4% K–1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. In conclusion, we show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.
- Authors:
-
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. Corp. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1500119
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Pendergrass, Angeline G., Knutti, Reto, Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, and Sanderson, Benjamin M. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y.
Pendergrass, Angeline G., Knutti, Reto, Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, & Sanderson, Benjamin M. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. United States. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y.
Pendergrass, Angeline G., Knutti, Reto, Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, and Sanderson, Benjamin M. Thu .
"Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate". United States. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1500119.
@article{osti_1500119,
title = {Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Knutti, Reto and Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
abstractNote = {Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K–1 globally, 4–5% K–1 over land and 2–4% K–1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. In conclusion, we show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {12}
}
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:

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The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
journal, April 2010
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- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 1-2
Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
journal, August 2013
- Chung, Christine T. Y.; Power, Scott B.; Arblaster, Julie M.
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Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation
journal, February 2016
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Analysis of daily variability of precipitation in a nested regional climate model: comparison with observations and doubled CO2 results
journal, April 1995
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journal, April 2011
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Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 2 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model
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Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate
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High‐Frequency Intermittency in Observed and Model‐Simulated Precipitation
journal, November 2018
- Covey, Curt; Doutriaux, Charles; Gleckler, Peter J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 22
Future Projections of Global Pluvial and Drought Event Characteristics
journal, November 2018
- Martin, E. R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 21
Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming
journal, November 2018
- Dong, Lu; Leung, L. Ruby; Song, Fengfei
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 22
Attribution of Global Soil Moisture Drying to Human Activities: A Quantitative Viewpoint
journal, March 2019
- Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 5
Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?
journal, April 2019
- Prein, Andreas F.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 7
Warming Alters Hydrologic Heterogeneity: Simulated Climate Sensitivity of Hydrology‐Based Microrefugia in the Snow‐to‐Rain Transition Zone
journal, March 2019
- Marshall, A. M.; Link, T. E.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 55, Issue 3
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California
journal, August 2019
- Williams, A. Park; Abatzoglou, John T.; Gershunov, Alexander
- Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8
Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather
journal, August 2019
- Anenberg, Susan C.; Dutton, Andrea; Goulet, Christine A.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8
Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation
journal, July 2019
- Bishop, Daniel A.; Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 14
Projected Changes in Interannual Variability of Peak Snowpack Amount and Timing in the Western United States
journal, August 2019
- Marshall, Adrienne M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Link, Timothy E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 15
Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms
journal, November 2018
- Witze, Alexandra
- Nature, Vol. 563, Issue 7732
Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America
journal, August 2018
- Musselman, Keith N.; Lehner, Flavio; Ikeda, Kyoko
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Climate-mediated changes to grassland structure determine habitat suitability for the critically endangered plains-wanderer ( Pedionomus torquatus )
journal, July 2019
- Antos, Mark; Schultz, Nick L.
- Emu - Austral Ornithology, Vol. 120, Issue 1
Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall
journal, October 2019
- Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 10
Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland
journal, August 2019
- Felton, Andrew J.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Smith, Melinda D.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2
Reduced tree growth in the semiarid United States due to asymmetric responses to intensifying precipitation extremes
journal, October 2019
- Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Smith, William K.
- Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 10
Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change
journal, May 2018
- Burggren, Warren
- The Journal of Experimental Biology, Vol. 221, Issue 9
An ecosystem-wide reproductive failure with more snow in the Arctic
journal, October 2019
- Schmidt, Niels Martin; Reneerkens, Jeroen; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
- PLOS Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 10
Competitive Interactions of Flowering Rush (Butomus umbellatus L.) Cytotypes in Submersed and Emergent Experimental Aquatic Plant Communities
journal, January 2020
- Harms, Nathan E.
- Diversity, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Climate Change, Land Use/Land Cover Change, and Population Growth as Drivers of Groundwater Depletion in the Central Valleys, Oaxaca, Mexico
journal, May 2019
- Ojeda Olivares, Edwin Antonio; Sandoval Torres, Sadoth; Belmonte Jiménez, Salvador Isidro
- Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 11
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia
journal, November 2018
- Taye, Meron; Dyer, Ellen; Hirpa, Feyera
- Water, Vol. 10, Issue 11
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
journal, January 2019
- Giorgi, Filippo; Raffaele, Francesca; Coppola, Erika
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Quantifying projected changes in runoff variability and flow regimes of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia
journal, January 2019
- Islam, Siraj Ul; Curry, Charles L.; Déry, Stephen J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 23, Issue 2
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