Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
Abstract
Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K–1 globally, 4–5% K–1 over land and 2–4% K–1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. In conclusion, we show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. Corp. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1500119
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Pendergrass, Angeline G., Knutti, Reto, Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, and Sanderson, Benjamin M. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y.
Pendergrass, Angeline G., Knutti, Reto, Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, & Sanderson, Benjamin M. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. United States. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y.
Pendergrass, Angeline G., Knutti, Reto, Lehner, Flavio, Deser, Clara, and Sanderson, Benjamin M. Thu .
"Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate". United States. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1500119.
@article{osti_1500119,
title = {Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate},
author = {Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Knutti, Reto and Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
abstractNote = {Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K–1 globally, 4–5% K–1 over land and 2–4% K–1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. In conclusion, we show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {12}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: Spatially aggregated precipitation variability change. Land area fraction experiencing a given change in the interannual standard deviation of seasonal-mean precipitation over extra-tropical land in (a) summer and (b) winter, and tropical land in (c) JJA and (d) DJF at individual grid points from 1976–2005 to 2071–2100 forced bymore »
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journal, June 2017
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Change in climate variability in the 21st century
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Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation
journal, December 2003
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Impact of increasing CO2 on monthly-to-annual precipitation extremes: analysis of the CMIP2 experiments
journal, January 2005
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The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change
journal, April 2010
- Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 1-2
Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific
journal, August 2013
- Chung, Christine T. Y.; Power, Scott B.; Arblaster, Julie M.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 7-8
Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation
journal, February 2016
- Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 146, Issue 3-4
Analysis of daily variability of precipitation in a nested regional climate model: comparison with observations and doubled CO2 results
journal, April 1995
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Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania
journal, April 2011
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Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios
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journal, November 2013
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Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes
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Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 2 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model
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Changes in the Extremes of the Climate Simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO 2 Doubling
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CO 2 -Induced Changes in Interannual Temperature and Precipitation Variability in 19 CMIP2 Experiments
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Transient Response of a Global Ocean-Atmosphere Model to a Doubling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
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Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006)
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Changes in Interannual Variability and Decadal Potential Predictability under Global Warming
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The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century
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An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
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NOAA's Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis
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The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability
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The Climate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Injections and Implications for Addressing Climate Emergencies
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Does Global Warming Cause Intensified Interannual Hydroclimate Variability?
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Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends
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Mechanisms of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss
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Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate
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- Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.
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Time-Varying Response of ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Rainfall to Global Warming in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Multimodel Ensemble Results
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The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World
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Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS)
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Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006
- Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J.
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Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation
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- Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 17
An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database
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- Menne, Matthew J.; Durre, Imke; Vose, Russell S.
- Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 29, Issue 7
United States' Interannual Precipitation Variability Over the Past Century: Is Variability Increasing as Predicted By Models?
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- Svoma, Bohumil M.; Balling, Robert C.
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Interaction of climatic variability with climatic change
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Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model
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Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1
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Irrigation Water Demand: Price Elasticities and Climatic Determinants in the Great Lakes Region
journal, November 2019
- Kornelis, Ari; Norris, Patricia
- Agricultural and Resource Economics Review
Environmental Conditions, Ignition Type, and Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires in the Southeastern and Western United States
journal, October 2018
- Brey, Steven J.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 10
Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions
journal, June 2018
- Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 12
High‐Frequency Intermittency in Observed and Model‐Simulated Precipitation
journal, November 2018
- Covey, Curt; Doutriaux, Charles; Gleckler, Peter J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 22
Future Projections of Global Pluvial and Drought Event Characteristics
journal, November 2018
- Martin, E. R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 21
Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming
journal, November 2018
- Dong, Lu; Leung, L. Ruby; Song, Fengfei
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 22
Attribution of Global Soil Moisture Drying to Human Activities: A Quantitative Viewpoint
journal, March 2019
- Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 5
Can We Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?
journal, April 2019
- Prein, Andreas F.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 7
Warming Alters Hydrologic Heterogeneity: Simulated Climate Sensitivity of Hydrology‐Based Microrefugia in the Snow‐to‐Rain Transition Zone
journal, March 2019
- Marshall, A. M.; Link, T. E.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 55, Issue 3
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California
journal, August 2019
- Williams, A. Park; Abatzoglou, John T.; Gershunov, Alexander
- Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8
Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather
journal, August 2019
- Anenberg, Susan C.; Dutton, Andrea; Goulet, Christine A.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8
Increased Fall Precipitation in the Southeastern United States Driven by Higher‐Intensity, Frontal Precipitation
journal, July 2019
- Bishop, Daniel A.; Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 14
Projected Changes in Interannual Variability of Peak Snowpack Amount and Timing in the Western United States
journal, August 2019
- Marshall, Adrienne M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Link, Timothy E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 15
Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms
journal, November 2018
- Witze, Alexandra
- Nature, Vol. 563, Issue 7732
Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America
journal, August 2018
- Musselman, Keith N.; Lehner, Flavio; Ikeda, Kyoko
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Climate-mediated changes to grassland structure determine habitat suitability for the critically endangered plains-wanderer ( Pedionomus torquatus )
journal, July 2019
- Antos, Mark; Schultz, Nick L.
- Emu - Austral Ornithology, Vol. 120, Issue 1
Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall
journal, October 2019
- Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 10
Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland
journal, August 2019
- Felton, Andrew J.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Smith, Melinda D.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2
Reduced tree growth in the semiarid United States due to asymmetric responses to intensifying precipitation extremes
journal, October 2019
- Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Smith, William K.
- Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 10
Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change
journal, May 2018
- Burggren, Warren
- The Journal of Experimental Biology, Vol. 221, Issue 9
An ecosystem-wide reproductive failure with more snow in the Arctic
journal, October 2019
- Schmidt, Niels Martin; Reneerkens, Jeroen; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
- PLOS Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 10
Competitive Interactions of Flowering Rush (Butomus umbellatus L.) Cytotypes in Submersed and Emergent Experimental Aquatic Plant Communities
journal, January 2020
- Harms, Nathan E.
- Diversity, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Climate Change, Land Use/Land Cover Change, and Population Growth as Drivers of Groundwater Depletion in the Central Valleys, Oaxaca, Mexico
journal, May 2019
- Ojeda Olivares, Edwin Antonio; Sandoval Torres, Sadoth; Belmonte Jiménez, Salvador Isidro
- Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 11
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia
journal, November 2018
- Taye, Meron; Dyer, Ellen; Hirpa, Feyera
- Water, Vol. 10, Issue 11
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
journal, January 2019
- Giorgi, Filippo; Raffaele, Francesca; Coppola, Erika
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Quantifying projected changes in runoff variability and flow regimes of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia
journal, January 2019
- Islam, Siraj Ul; Curry, Charles L.; Déry, Stephen J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 23, Issue 2
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.