Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Knutti, Reto; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y

Title: Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Journal Article · 21 December 2017 · Scientific Reports

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y · OSTI ID:1500119

^[1];

^[2]; Lehner, Flavio ^[1]; Deser, Clara ^[1]; Sanderson, Benjamin M. ^[1]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K^–1 globally, 4–5% K^–1 over land and 2–4% K^–1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. In conclusion, we show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1500119

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Study of the impact of climate change on precipitation in Paris area using method based on iterative multiscale dynamic time warping (IMS-DTW) Dilmi, Mohamed Djallel; Barthès, Laurent; Mallet, Cécile arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1910.10809	preprint	January 2019
Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather Anenberg, Susan C.; Dutton, Andrea; Goulet, Christine A. Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001242	journal	August 2019
Loss of dominant caterpillar genera in a protected tropical forest Salcido, Danielle M.; Forister, Matthew L.; Garcia Lopez, Humberto Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57226-9	journal	January 2020
Increasing exposure of energy infrastructure to compound hazards: cascading wildfires and extreme rainfall Moftakhari, Hamed; AghaKouchak, Amir Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab41a6	journal	October 2019
Climate Change, Land Use/Land Cover Change, and Population Growth as Drivers of Groundwater Depletion in the Central Valleys, Oaxaca, Mexico Ojeda Olivares, Edwin Antonio; Sandoval Torres, Sadoth; Belmonte Jiménez, Salvador Isidro Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111290	journal	May 2019
Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America Musselman, Keith N.; Lehner, Flavio; Ikeda, Kyoko Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4	journal	August 2018
Will Landscape Fire Increase in the Future? A Systems Approach to Climate, Fire, Fuel, and Human Drivers Riley, Karin L.; Williams, A. Park; Urbanski, Shawn P. Current Pollution Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-019-0103-6	journal	February 2019
Climate-mediated changes to grassland structure determine habitat suitability for the critically endangered plains-wanderer ( Pedionomus torquatus ) Antos, Mark; Schultz, Nick L. Emu - Austral Ornithology, Vol. 120, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/01584197.2019.1641415	journal	July 2019
Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Clemesha, Rachel E. S. Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w	journal	July 2019
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia Taye, Meron; Dyer, Ellen; Hirpa, Feyera Water, Vol. 10, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111560	journal	November 2018
A multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain analysis of regional climate projections for the Mediterranean Zittis, George; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Klangidou, Marina Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01565-w	journal	November 2019
Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases Duffy, Philip B.; Field, Christopher B.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. Science, Vol. 363, Issue 6427 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat5982	journal	December 2018
Climate-mediated changes to grassland structure determine habitat suitability for the critically endangered plains-wanderer (Pedionomus torquatus) Antos, Mark; Schultz, Nick L. Taylor & Francis https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.9037505.v1	text	January 2019