Title: Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state-of-the-art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall-related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Altogether, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid-to-high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1497678
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--136949
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 22 Vol. 45; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (42)

Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and application of an algorithm for global studies: Detection of Atmospheric Rivers journal December 2015
Advancing atmospheric river forecasts into subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales: Forecasting ARs at S2S Time Scales journal July 2017
Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales: PREDICTION OF Z500 AT S2S TIME SCALES journal January 2018
Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India journal March 2018
Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation? journal January 2011
A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States journal February 2011
Changes in a modeled MJO with idealized global warming journal February 2012
The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4 journal June 2013
Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change journal April 2015
Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers journal January 2006
Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming journal January 2006
Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming journal January 2007
A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate journal August 2018
Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming journal April 2013
Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate journal October 2015
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California journal April 2018
Seasonally dependent responses of subtropical highs and tropical rainfall to anthropogenic warming journal August 2018
Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate journal December 2017
Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation journal February 2018
The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events journal March 2018
Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 2 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model journal September 1995
ENSO and Hydrologic Extremes in the Western United States* journal September 1999
Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events in California and Relationships with the Madden–Julian Oscillation journal October 2000
Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period journal September 1972
Baroclinic Adjustment journal April 1978
On the Height of the Tropopause and the Static Stability of the Troposphere journal February 1982
Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming journal April 2009
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming journal September 2010
Modulation of Cold-Season U.S. Daily Precipitation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation journal October 2011
North American Regional Reanalysis journal March 2006
Mechanisms for a PNA-Like Teleconnection Pattern in Response to the MJO journal June 2017
Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought journal June 2012
Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe journal September 2016
The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World journal September 2016
Polarized Response of East Asian Winter Temperature Extremes in the Era of Arctic Warming journal July 2018
Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Storm-Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America journal August 2018
Roles of SST versus Internal Atmospheric Variability in Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability along the U.S. West Coast journal October 2018
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming journal November 2006
Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation journal September 2007
Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Influence Wintertime Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada? journal February 2012
Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events along the Pacific Northwest Coast: Climatology and Synoptic Evolution journal July 2012
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming text January 2010

Cited By (2)

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather journal August 2019
Contributions of Extreme and Non‐Extreme Precipitation to California Precipitation Seasonality Changes Under Warming journal November 2019

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES