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Title: PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Abstract

Here, this work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm–time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross–energy, –L–shell, and –pitch–angle coherence associated with wave–electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by NOAA POES in low–Earth–orbits (LEOs), and provides high–fidelity nowcast (multiple–hour prediction) and forecast (> ~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L–shells between 2.8–7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1–day forewarning time, but also accurately specify the evolving event–specific electron spatial distributions afterwards. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long–term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a LANL geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, this new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future, and further adds new science utility to existing and next–generation LEO space infrastructure.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1496751
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1499815
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-18-29269
Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Space Weather
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 17; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics; MeV electron events; event‐specific predictions; outer radiation belt; precipitation at low‐earth‐orbits (LEO); linear predictive filters; LANL GEO observations

Citation Formats

Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Fu, Xiangrong, and Henderson, Michael. PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2018SW002095.
Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Fu, Xiangrong, & Henderson, Michael. PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt. United States. doi:10.1029/2018SW002095.
Chen, Yue, Reeves, Geoffrey D., Fu, Xiangrong, and Henderson, Michael. Wed . "PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt". United States. doi:10.1029/2018SW002095. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1496751.
@article{osti_1496751,
title = {PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt},
author = {Chen, Yue and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Fu, Xiangrong and Henderson, Michael},
abstractNote = {Here, this work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm–time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross–energy, –L–shell, and –pitch–angle coherence associated with wave–electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by NOAA POES in low–Earth–orbits (LEOs), and provides high–fidelity nowcast (multiple–hour prediction) and forecast (> ~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L–shells between 2.8–7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1–day forewarning time, but also accurately specify the evolving event–specific electron spatial distributions afterwards. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long–term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a LANL geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, this new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future, and further adds new science utility to existing and next–generation LEO space infrastructure.},
doi = {10.1029/2018SW002095},
journal = {Space Weather},
number = 3,
volume = 17,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {2}
}

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