Taking climate model evaluation to the next level
Abstract
We report that earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. Lastly, these approaches are needed to distill the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
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[5];
[6];
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[15]
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- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany); University of Bremen (Germany)
- University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada)
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States)
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), IPSL, Paris (France)
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)
- Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); Horizon 2020
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1495951
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1571963; OSTI ID: 1647446
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-774290
Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402; AC52-07NA27344; 641816; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Climate Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate and Earth system modelling; environmental science; projection and prediction; scientific community
Citation Formats
Eyring, Veronika, Cox, Peter M., Flato, Gregory M., Gleckler, Peter J., Abramowitz, Gab, Caldwell, Peter, Collins, William D., Gier, Bettina K., Hall, Alex D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Hurtt, George C., Jahn, Alexandra, Jones, Chris D., Klein, Stephen A., Krasting, John P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lorenz, Ruth, Maloney, Eric, Meehl, Gerald A., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Pincus, Robert, Ruane, Alex C., Russell, Joellen L., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Santer, Benjamin D., Sherwood, Steven C., Simpson, Isla R., Stouffer, Ronald J., and Williamson, Mark S. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y.
Eyring, Veronika, Cox, Peter M., Flato, Gregory M., Gleckler, Peter J., Abramowitz, Gab, Caldwell, Peter, Collins, William D., Gier, Bettina K., Hall, Alex D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Hurtt, George C., Jahn, Alexandra, Jones, Chris D., Klein, Stephen A., Krasting, John P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lorenz, Ruth, Maloney, Eric, Meehl, Gerald A., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Pincus, Robert, Ruane, Alex C., Russell, Joellen L., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Santer, Benjamin D., Sherwood, Steven C., Simpson, Isla R., Stouffer, Ronald J., & Williamson, Mark S. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
Eyring, Veronika, Cox, Peter M., Flato, Gregory M., Gleckler, Peter J., Abramowitz, Gab, Caldwell, Peter, Collins, William D., Gier, Bettina K., Hall, Alex D., Hoffman, Forrest M., Hurtt, George C., Jahn, Alexandra, Jones, Chris D., Klein, Stephen A., Krasting, John P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lorenz, Ruth, Maloney, Eric, Meehl, Gerald A., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Pincus, Robert, Ruane, Alex C., Russell, Joellen L., Sanderson, Benjamin M., Santer, Benjamin D., Sherwood, Steven C., Simpson, Isla R., Stouffer, Ronald J., and Williamson, Mark S. Mon .
"Taking climate model evaluation to the next level". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1495951.
@article{osti_1495951,
title = {Taking climate model evaluation to the next level},
author = {Eyring, Veronika and Cox, Peter M. and Flato, Gregory M. and Gleckler, Peter J. and Abramowitz, Gab and Caldwell, Peter and Collins, William D. and Gier, Bettina K. and Hall, Alex D. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Hurtt, George C. and Jahn, Alexandra and Jones, Chris D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Krasting, John P. and Kwiatkowski, Lester and Lorenz, Ruth and Maloney, Eric and Meehl, Gerald A. and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Pincus, Robert and Ruane, Alex C. and Russell, Joellen L. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Sherwood, Steven C. and Simpson, Isla R. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Williamson, Mark S.},
abstractNote = {We report that earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. Lastly, these approaches are needed to distill the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {1}
}
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Emergent Constraints on Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
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Climate Models as Guidance for the Design of Observing Systems: the Case of Polar Climate and Sea Ice Prediction
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Global Climate Model Ensemble Approaches for Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers
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An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming
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Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections
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Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding
journal, January 2020
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- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
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An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback
journal, November 2019
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The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models
journal, November 2019
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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
journal, June 2020
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Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers
journal, July 2019
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Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals
journal, September 2019
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Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting
journal, November 2019
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Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation
journal, December 2019
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Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations
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ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
journal, January 2019
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Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints
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A causal flow approach for the evaluation of global climate models
journal, January 2020
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Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding
text, January 2020
- Gramelsberger, Gabriele; Lenhard, J.; Parker, W. S.
- RWTH Aachen University
Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting
text, January 2019
- Brunner, Lukas; Lorenz, Ruth; Zumwald, Marius
- ETH Zurich
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
text, January 2019
- Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik
- Springer Nature
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
text, January 2019
- Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik
- ETH Zurich
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
text, January 2019
- Heinze, Christoph; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- ETH Zurich
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century
text, January 2020
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Climate Models as Guidance for the Design of Observing Systems - The case of Polar Climate and Sea Ice Prediction
text, January 2020
- Massonnet, François
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