Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Eyring, Veronika; Cox, Peter M.; Flato, Gregory M.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Abramowitz, Gab; Caldwell, Peter; Collins, William D.; Gier, Bettina K.; Hall, Alex D.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Hurtt, George C.; Jahn, Alexandra; Jones, Chris D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Krasting, John P.; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Lorenz, Ruth; Maloney, Eric; Meehl, Gerald A.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Pincus, Robert; Ruane, Alex C.; Russell, Joellen L.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Simpson, Isla R.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Williamson, Mark S.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Title: Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Journal Article · 07 January 2019 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y · OSTI ID:1495951

^[1];

^[2]; Flato, Gregory M. ^[3]; Gleckler, Peter J. ^[4];

^[5]; Caldwell, Peter ^[4];

^[6]; Gier, Bettina K. ^[1]; Hall, Alex D. ^[7];

^[8]; Hurtt, George C. ^[9];

^[10];

^[11];

^[4]; Krasting, John P. ^[12];

^[13];

^[14];

^[10]; Meehl, Gerald A. ^[15];

^[15] more »

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany); University of Bremen (Germany)
University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia (Canada)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States)
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), IPSL, Paris (France)
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

We report that earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. Lastly, these approaches are needed to distill the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); Horizon 2020

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402; AC52-07NA27344; 641816; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1495951

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1571963; OSTI ID: 1647446

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-774290

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 2; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 354 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (104)

TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2012.04.093	journal	January 2012
The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6 Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016	journal	January 2016
Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Maraun, Douglas; Eyring, Veronika Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 70, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-071.1	journal	December 2013
Detecting Regions of Maximal Divergence for Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection Barz, Bjorn; Rodner, Erik; Garcia, Yanira Guanche IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1109/TPAMI.2018.2823766	journal	May 2019
Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems Runge, Jakob; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Donges, Jonathan F. Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9502	journal	October 2015
Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming Tsushima, Yoko; Ringer, Mark A.; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi Climate Dynamics, Vol. 46, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2750-7	journal	August 2015
What Controls the Strength of Snow-Albedo Feedback? Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4186.1	journal	August 2007
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): a diagnostic MIP for CMIP6 Gutowski Jr., William J.; Giorgi, Filippo; Timbal, Bertrand Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016	journal	January 2016
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0) Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-261-2015	journal	January 2015
Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.; Huang, B. Science, Vol. 348, Issue 6242 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5632	journal	June 2015
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models Waugh, D. W.; Eyring, V. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-5699-2008	journal	January 2008
CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6 Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 98, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00013.1	journal	January 2017
Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3387	journal	September 2017
Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans Kwiatkowski, Lester; Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3265	journal	April 2017
An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming Chadburn, S. E.; Burke, E. J.; Cox, P. M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262	journal	April 2017
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties Herger, Nadja; Abramowitz, Gab; Knutti, Reto Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018	journal	January 2018
Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate Herger, Nadja; Angélil, Oliver; Abramowitz, Gab Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028549	journal	June 2018
Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0027-1	journal	October 2015
Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining Caldwell, Peter M.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Zelinka, Mark D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059205	journal	March 2014
Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Widmann, Martin Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3418	journal	November 2017
Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections Abramowitz, G.; Bishop, C. H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00364.1	journal	March 2015
Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 Wenzel, Sabrina; Cox, Peter M.; Eyring, Veronika Nature, Vol. 538, Issue 7626 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19772	journal	September 2016
Climate forcing datasets for agricultural modeling: Merged products for gap-filling and historical climate series estimation Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 200 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.016	journal	January 2015
Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability Cox, Peter M.; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B. Nature, Vol. 494, Issue 7437 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11882	journal	February 2013
Relationship between temperature and precipitable water changes over tropical oceans Mears, Carl A.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Wentz, Frank J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031936	journal	January 2007
Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024: DECADAL HINDCASTS: EVAL AND PRED Thoma, Malte; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Kadow, Christopher Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064833	journal	August 2015
Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change Räisänen, Jouni; Ruokolainen, Leena; Ylhäisi, Jussi Climate Dynamics, Vol. 35, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0659-8	journal	September 2009
Evaluating Modes of Variability in Climate Models Phillips, Adam S.; Deser, Clara; Fasullo, John Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 95, Issue 49 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EO490002	journal	December 2014
ENSO in CMIP5 simulations: network connectivity from the recent past to the twenty-third century Fountalis, Ilias; Bracco, Annalisa; Dovrolis, Constantine Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2412-1	journal	November 2014
The Effect of Diurnal Correction on Satellite-Derived Lower Tropospheric Temperature Mears, C. A. Science, Vol. 309, Issue 5740 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114772	journal	September 2005
Interpretation of the positive low-cloud feedback predicted by a climate model under global warming Brient, Florent; Bony, Sandrine Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1279-7	journal	January 2012
COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 92, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS2856.1	journal	August 2011
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5 Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203	journal	February 2013
The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6 Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017	journal	January 2017
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110	journal	December 2013
Future climate risk from compound events Zscheischler, Jakob; Westra, Seth; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3	journal	May 2018
Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm Bishop, Craig H.; Abramowitz, Gab Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y	journal	December 2012
Climate model genealogy: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY Masson, D.; Knutti, R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046864	journal	April 2011
Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto; Caldwell, Peter Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00361.1	journal	July 2015
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Zwiers, Francis W. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1972	journal	August 2013
Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP Eyring, Veronika; Gleckler, Peter J.; Heinze, Christoph Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-813-2016	journal	January 2016
On the Effective Number of Climate Models Pennell, Christopher; Reichler, Thomas Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3814.1	journal	May 2011
What Are Climate Models Missing? Stevens, B.; Bony, S. Science, Vol. 340, Issue 6136 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1237554	journal	May 2013
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Arblaster, Julie M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1	journal	September 2013
Evolving Obs4MIPs to Support Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Ferraro, Robert; Waliser, Duane E.; Gleckler, Peter Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00216.1	journal	August 2015
Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique Mears, Carl A.; Wentz, Frank J.; Thorne, Peter Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014954	journal	January 2011
Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC) Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda https://doi.org/10.17882/42182	dataset	January 2018
THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research Meehl, Gerald A.; Covey, Curt; Delworth, Thomas Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 88, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383	journal	September 2007
Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies Santer, B. D.; Taylor, K. E.; Gleckler, P. J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 35 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901736106	journal	August 2009
ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP Eyring, Veronika; Righi, Mattia; Lauer, Axel Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016	journal	January 2016
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle Allen, Myles R.; Ingram, William J. Nature, Vol. 419, Issue 6903 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092	journal	September 2002
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Meehl, Gerald A.; Boer, George J.; Covey, Curt Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0313:TCMIPC>2.3.CO;2	journal	February 2000
Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America Lorenz, Ruth; Herger, Nadja; Sedláček, Jan Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027992	journal	May 2018
A Bayesian Approach for Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Precipitation Projections Including Climate Model Interdependency and Nonstationary Bias Sunyer, Maria Antonia; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00589.1	journal	September 2014
The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Hartmann, Dennis L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00163.1	journal	January 2014
Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons Lauer, Axel; Jones, Colin; Eyring, Veronika Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018	journal	January 2018
A framework for benchmarking land models Luo, Y. Q.; Randerson, J. T.; Abramowitz, G. Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3857-2012	journal	January 2012
Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice Massonnet, F.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H. The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012	journal	January 2012
CMIP5 models' shortwave cloud radiative response and climate sensitivity linked to the climatological Hadley cell extent: SWCRE RESPONSE AND ECS LINK TO HADLEY CELL Lipat, Bernard R.; Tselioudis, George; Grise, Kevin M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073151	journal	June 2017
Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Arora, V. K. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002381	journal	February 2014
Parameterization of convective transport in the boundary layer and its impact on the representation of the diurnal cycle of wind and dust emissions Hourdin, F.; Gueye, M.; Diallo, B. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 15, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6775-2015	journal	January 2015
Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown Fyfe, John C.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938	journal	February 2016
Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S. Nature, Vol. 553, Issue 7688 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25450	journal	January 2018
The end of model democracy?: An editorial comment Knutti, Reto Climatic Change, Vol. 102, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9800-2	journal	January 2010
A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto; Caldwell, Peter Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1	journal	July 2015
Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: causes, impacts and ways forward: Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans Richter, Ingo Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.338	journal	March 2015
Spread of model climate sensitivity linked to double‐Intertropical Convergence Zone bias Tian, Baijun Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064119	journal	May 2015
An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification DeAngelis, Anthony M.; Qu, Xin; Zelinka, Mark D. Nature, Vol. 528, Issue 7581 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15770	journal	December 2015
Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wehner, Michael; Knutti, Reto Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017	journal	January 2017
Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali P. Earth Perspectives, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40322-017-0036-4	journal	March 2017
Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions Malavelle, Florent F.; Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy Nature, Vol. 546, Issue 7659 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22974	journal	June 2017
Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015	journal	January 2015
Tuning the climate of a global model: TUNING THE CLIMATE OF A GLOBAL MODEL Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn; Roeckner, Erich Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000154	journal	March 2012
Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing Sherwood, Steven C.; Bony, Sandrine; Dufresne, Jean-Louis Nature, Vol. 505, Issue 7481 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12829	journal	January 2014
The software architecture of climate models: a graphical comparison of CMIP5 and EMICAR5 configurations Alexander, K.; Easterbrook, S. M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1221-2015	journal	January 2015
A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases Wang, Chunzai; Zhang, Liping; Lee, Sang-Ki Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2118	journal	February 2014
Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Céline; Painter, Jeffrey F. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098	journal	February 2014
Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming Meehl, Gerald A.; Teng, Haiyan; Arblaster, Julie M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2357	journal	September 2014
An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability Dessler, A. E.; Forster, P. M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028481	journal	August 2018
Understanding and Reducing Future Uncertainty in Midlatitude Daily Heat Extremes Via Land Surface Feedback Constraints Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Angélil, Oliver Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079128	journal	October 2018
Peruvian Stratus Clouds and the Tropical Pacific Circulation: A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM Study Ma, Chung-Chun; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Robertson, Andrew W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1635:PSCATT>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1996
Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change O’Gorman, Paul A. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1568	journal	September 2012
Constraints on Climate Sensitivity from Space-Based Measurements of Low-Cloud Reflection Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0897.1	journal	August 2016
The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning Hourdin, Frédéric; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Gettelman, Andrew Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 98, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1	journal	March 2017
Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11718	journal	June 2016
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6 Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016	journal	January 2016
Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression Wenzel, Sabrina; Eyring, Veronika; Gerber, Edwin P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1	journal	January 2016
Key assessments from the IPCC special report on global warming of 1.5 °C and the implications for the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction Djalante, Riyanti Progress in Disaster Science, Vol. 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100001	journal	May 2019
The Global Gridded Crop Model intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0) Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-4383-2014	journal	January 2014
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation Eyring, V.; Bony, S.; Meehl, G. A. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-10539-2015	journal	January 2015
ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth System Models in CMIP Eyring, V.; Righi, M.; Evaldsson, M. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-7541-2015	journal	January 2015
Asymmetrical response of California electricity demand to summer-time temperature variation Kumar, Rohini; Rachunok, Benjamin; Maia-Silva, Debora Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67695-y	journal	July 2020
An estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity from interannual variability Dessler, Andrew; Forster, Piers EarthArXiv https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/4et67	text	January 2018
The end of model democracy? Reto, Knutti, ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000023411	text	January 2010
Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Wehner, Michael; Knutti, Reto ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000191237	text	January 2017
Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America Lorenz, Ruth; Herger, Nadja; Sedláček, Jan ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000268868	text	January 2018
Peruvian Stratus Clouds and the Tropical Pacific Circulation: A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM Study Ma, Chung-Chun; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Robertson, Andrew W. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8tf0736	text	January 1996
Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions. Malavelle, Florent F.; Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.43715	journalarticle	January 2017
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties Nadja, Herger,; Gab, Abramowitz,; Reto, Knutti, ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000246202	text	January 2018
ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP Eyring, Veronika; Righi, Mattia; Lauer, Axel Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.48350/167138	text	January 2016
Detecting Regions of Maximal Divergence for Spatio-Temporal Anomaly Detection Barz, Björn; Rodner, Erik; Garcia, Yanira Guanche arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1804.07091	text	January 2018
Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC) Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda https://doi.org/10.17882/42182	dataset	January 2018

Cited By (36)

Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects Brient, Florent Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9140-8	journal	December 2019
Using indices of atmospheric circulation to refine southern Australian winter rainfall climate projections Grose, Michael R.; Foster, Scott; Risbey, James S. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04880-4	journal	June 2019
Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on Simulated Future Change in Extreme Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Watterson, Ian G. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 56, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-019-00141-w	journal	July 2019
Emergent Constraints on Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Cox, Peter M. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00141-y	journal	September 2019
Climate Models as Guidance for the Design of Observing Systems: the Case of Polar Climate and Sea Ice Prediction Massonnet, François Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00151-w	journal	November 2019
Global Climate Model Ensemble Approaches for Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers Massoud, E. C.; Espinoza, V.; Guan, B. Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001249	journal	October 2019
An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming Rowell, David P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082847	journal	June 2019
Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections Hausfather, Zeke; Drake, Henri F.; Abbott, Tristan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085378	journal	January 2020
Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding Gramelsberger, G.; Lenhard, J.; Parker, W. S. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001720	journal	January 2020
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3	journal	June 2019
An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback Thackeray, Chad W.; Hall, Alex Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0619-1	journal	November 2019
The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models Lehner, Flavio; Wood, Andrew W.; Vano, Julie A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x	journal	November 2019
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century Terhaar, Jens; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Bopp, Laurent Nature, Vol. 582, Issue 7812 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2360-3	journal	June 2020
Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Clemesha, Rachel E. S. Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w	journal	July 2019
Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals Santer, Benjamin D.; Fyfe, John C.; Solomon, Susan Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 40 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904586116	journal	September 2019
Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting Brunner, Lukas; Lorenz, Ruth; Zumwald, Marius Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f	journal	November 2019
Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation Tabari, Hossein; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; AghaKouchak, Amir Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab55fd	journal	December 2019
Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations He, Yue; Peng, Shushi; Liu, Yongwen Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14816	journal	September 2019
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation Heinze, Christoph; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019	journal	January 2019
Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints Winkler, Alexander J.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Brovkin, Victor Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019	journal	January 2019
A causal flow approach for the evaluation of global climate models Vázquez‐Patiño, Angel; Campozano, Lenin; Mendoza, Daniel International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 40, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6470	journal	January 2020
Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding Gramelsberger, Gabriele; Lenhard, J.; Parker, W. S. RWTH Aachen University https://doi.org/10.18154/rwth-2020-04050	text	January 2020
Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting Brunner, Lukas; Lorenz, Ruth; Zumwald, Marius ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000384838	text	January 2019
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik Springer Nature https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.140028	text	January 2019
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000349241	text	January 2019
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation Heinze, Christoph; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000354206	text	January 2019
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century Terhaar, Jens; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Bopp, Laurent Nature Publishing Group https://doi.org/10.48350/153070	text	January 2020
Climate Models as Guidance for the Design of Observing Systems - The case of Polar Climate and Sea Ice Prediction Massonnet, François Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4536967	text	January 2020
Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections Nowack, Peer; Runge, Jakob; Eyring, Veronika Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15195-y	journal	March 2020
Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century Terhaar, Jens; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Bopp, Laurent Nature, Vol. 582, Issue 7812 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2360-3	journal	June 2020
Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Clemesha, Rachel E. S. Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w	journal	July 2019
The response of global terrestrial photosynthesis to rising CO2 Winkler, Alexander Universität Hamburg https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3190373	text	January 2020
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP Eyring, Veronika; Bock, Lisa; Lauer, Axel Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.48350/167118	text	January 2020
Post-Processing of High-Dimensional Data Espig, Mike; Hackbusch, Wolfgang; Litvinenko, Alexander arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1906.05669	preprint	January 2019
Will Artificial Intelligence supersede Earth System and Climate Models? Irrgang, Christopher; Boers, Niklas; Sonnewald, Maike arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.09126	text	January 2021
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik Springer Nature https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.140028	text	January 2019

Similar Records

Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP

Journal Article · 2016 · Earth System Dynamics (Online) · OSTI ID:1395317

Eyring, Veronika; Gleckler, Peter J.; Heinze, Christoph; +10 more

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

Journal Article · 2017 · PLoS ONE · OSTI ID:1627846

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

Chapter 13: All-Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft (eVTOL) for Sustainable Urban Travel

Book · 2023 · OSTI ID:1998657

Russo, Raffaele; Tan, Eric C. D.

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Climate and Earth system modelling
environmental science
projection and prediction
scientific community

Title: Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Citation Formats

References (104)

Cited By (36)

Similar Records

Related Subjects