The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change
Abstract
The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in–depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non–steady–state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process–based model (3D–CMCC–CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m–2·yr–1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At mediummore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4];
[4];
[4];
[5];
[6];
[7]
- National Research Council of Italy Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR‐ISAFOM) 87036 Rende Cosenza Italy, Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (CMCC‐IAFES) Division Foundation Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change 01100 Viterbo Italy
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee 37830 USA
- Joint Research Centre Directorate for Sustainable Resources European Commission Ispra Italy
- Scuola di Scienze Agrarie, Forestali, Alimentari e Ambientali Università degli Studi della Basilicata Viale dell'Ateneo Lucano 10 Potenza Potenza 85100 Italy
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro‐Food and Forest Systems (DIBAF) University of Tuscia 01100 Viterbo Italy
- IPSL–LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ UPSaclay Centre d'Etudes Orme des Merisiers 91191 Gif sur Yvette France
- National Research Council of Italy Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR‐ISAFOM) 87036 Rende Cosenza Italy
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1570880
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1494009; OSTI ID: 1503938
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Ecological Applications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Ecological Applications Journal Volume: 29 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1051-0761
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; autotrophic respiration; climate change; forest development; forest structuring; model sensitivity; model uncertainty; net primary productivity
Citation Formats
Collalti, Alessio, Thornton, Peter E., Cescatti, Alessandro, Rita, Angelo, Borghetti, Marco, Nolè, Angelo, Trotta, Carlo, Ciais, Philippe, and Matteucci, Giorgio. The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1002/eap.1837.
Collalti, Alessio, Thornton, Peter E., Cescatti, Alessandro, Rita, Angelo, Borghetti, Marco, Nolè, Angelo, Trotta, Carlo, Ciais, Philippe, & Matteucci, Giorgio. The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1837
Collalti, Alessio, Thornton, Peter E., Cescatti, Alessandro, Rita, Angelo, Borghetti, Marco, Nolè, Angelo, Trotta, Carlo, Ciais, Philippe, and Matteucci, Giorgio. Mon .
"The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1837.
@article{osti_1570880,
title = {The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change},
author = {Collalti, Alessio and Thornton, Peter E. and Cescatti, Alessandro and Rita, Angelo and Borghetti, Marco and Nolè, Angelo and Trotta, Carlo and Ciais, Philippe and Matteucci, Giorgio},
abstractNote = {The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in–depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non–steady–state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process–based model (3D–CMCC–CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m–2·yr–1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m–2·yr–1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Lastly, our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.},
doi = {10.1002/eap.1837},
journal = {Ecological Applications},
number = 2,
volume = 29,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 04 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Mon Feb 04 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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