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Title: The underestimated magnitude and decline trend in near-surface wind over China

Abstract

This study reports the magnitude, spatial pattern and temporal trend of near-surface wind speed (NWS) by comparing 20th century simulations in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and 3 (CMIP3) and the climate reanalyses with measurements at 563 weather stations in China over 1961–2005. Both CMIP5 and CMIP3 agree quite well with observations in reproducing the spatial pattern of annual mean NWS. CMIP5 models are superior to CMIP3 models in hindcasting the magnitude and spatial pattern of seasonal mean NWS, the temporal trend in annual and seasonal mean NWS. Although both CMIP3 and CMIP5 reproduced the decline trend in the annual and seasonal mean NWS, the hindcasted decline rate is smaller than observed decline trend by the magnitude of one order. The ensemble of optimal models that are better correlated to observations in both NWS and temporal trend possesses advantages over individual model hindcast and reanalyses. The reanalyzed data are not able to represent the observed either the spatial pattern or the decline trend of NWS. The analyses presented here reveal the uncertainties in the current wind field products including reanalyses and model outputs and highlight the benefits of parameterization development and increased horizontal resolution in the new-generation CMIPmore » models.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [3];  [5]
  1. China Meteorological Administration, Beijing (China). Specialized Meteorological Office. Public Weather Service Center
  2. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). CAS Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia. Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  3. Meteorological Bureau of Chaohu Lake Basin, Chaohu (China)
  4. Shandong Meteorological Bureau, Jinan (China). Shandong Climate Center
  5. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). CAS Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia. Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC); CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program (China)
OSTI Identifier:
1493249
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; 41205114
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Science Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 18; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1530-261X
Publisher:
Royal Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CMIP5; CMIP3; reanalysis; near-surface wind speed (NWS); model evaluation; China

Citation Formats

Jiang, Ying, Xu, Xiyan, Liu, Hanwu, Dong, Xuguang, Wang, Wenben, and Jia, Gensuo. The underestimated magnitude and decline trend in near-surface wind over China. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/asl.791.
Jiang, Ying, Xu, Xiyan, Liu, Hanwu, Dong, Xuguang, Wang, Wenben, & Jia, Gensuo. The underestimated magnitude and decline trend in near-surface wind over China. United States. doi:10.1002/asl.791.
Jiang, Ying, Xu, Xiyan, Liu, Hanwu, Dong, Xuguang, Wang, Wenben, and Jia, Gensuo. Mon . "The underestimated magnitude and decline trend in near-surface wind over China". United States. doi:10.1002/asl.791. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1493249.
@article{osti_1493249,
title = {The underestimated magnitude and decline trend in near-surface wind over China},
author = {Jiang, Ying and Xu, Xiyan and Liu, Hanwu and Dong, Xuguang and Wang, Wenben and Jia, Gensuo},
abstractNote = {This study reports the magnitude, spatial pattern and temporal trend of near-surface wind speed (NWS) by comparing 20th century simulations in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and 3 (CMIP3) and the climate reanalyses with measurements at 563 weather stations in China over 1961–2005. Both CMIP5 and CMIP3 agree quite well with observations in reproducing the spatial pattern of annual mean NWS. CMIP5 models are superior to CMIP3 models in hindcasting the magnitude and spatial pattern of seasonal mean NWS, the temporal trend in annual and seasonal mean NWS. Although both CMIP3 and CMIP5 reproduced the decline trend in the annual and seasonal mean NWS, the hindcasted decline rate is smaller than observed decline trend by the magnitude of one order. The ensemble of optimal models that are better correlated to observations in both NWS and temporal trend possesses advantages over individual model hindcast and reanalyses. The reanalyzed data are not able to represent the observed either the spatial pattern or the decline trend of NWS. The analyses presented here reveal the uncertainties in the current wind field products including reanalyses and model outputs and highlight the benefits of parameterization development and increased horizontal resolution in the new-generation CMIP models.},
doi = {10.1002/asl.791},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
number = 12,
volume = 18,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {12}
}

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Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: PCC between simulated and observed mean NWS in each grid cell, trend of annual mean NWS and mean NWS by individual model hincasts, ensemble model hindcasts and reanalyses.

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Future projections of the near-surface wind speed over eastern China based on CMIP5 datasets
    journal, January 2020


      Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.