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Title: Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds

Abstract

Heatwaves with large impacts have increased in the recent past and will continue to increase under future warming. However, the implication for population exposure to severe heatwaves remains unexplored. Here, we characterize maximum potential human exposure (without passive/active reduction measures) to severe heatwaves in India. We show that if the global mean temperature is limited to 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions, the frequency of severe heatwaves will rise by 30 times the current climate by the end-21st century. In contrast, the frequency is projected to be about 2.5 times more (than the low-warming scenario of 2 °C) under conditions expected if the RCP8.5 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario is followed. Under the 2.0 °C low-warming target, population exposure to severe heatwaves is projected to increase by about 15 and 92 times the current level by the mid and end-21st century respectively. Strategies to reduce population growth in India during the 21st century may provide only limited mitigation of heatwave exposure mostly late in the century. Limiting global temperatures to 1.5 °C above preindustrial would reduce the exposure by half relative to RCP8.5 by the mid-21st century. If global temperatures are to exceed 1.5 °C then substantial measures will be required to offsetmore » the large increase in exposure to severe heatwaves in India.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Indian Inst. of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar (India). Civil Engineering
  2. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1493248
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC02-05CH11231]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 12]; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; heat wave; climate change; heat wave exposure; low warming; COP21; heatwaves in India

Citation Formats

Mishra, Vimal, Mukherjee, Sourav, Kumar, Rohini, and Stone, Dáithí A. Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388.
Mishra, Vimal, Mukherjee, Sourav, Kumar, Rohini, & Stone, Dáithí A. Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388.
Mishra, Vimal, Mukherjee, Sourav, Kumar, Rohini, and Stone, Dáithí A. Mon . "Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1493248.
@article{osti_1493248,
title = {Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds},
author = {Mishra, Vimal and Mukherjee, Sourav and Kumar, Rohini and Stone, Dáithí A.},
abstractNote = {Heatwaves with large impacts have increased in the recent past and will continue to increase under future warming. However, the implication for population exposure to severe heatwaves remains unexplored. Here, we characterize maximum potential human exposure (without passive/active reduction measures) to severe heatwaves in India. We show that if the global mean temperature is limited to 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions, the frequency of severe heatwaves will rise by 30 times the current climate by the end-21st century. In contrast, the frequency is projected to be about 2.5 times more (than the low-warming scenario of 2 °C) under conditions expected if the RCP8.5 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario is followed. Under the 2.0 °C low-warming target, population exposure to severe heatwaves is projected to increase by about 15 and 92 times the current level by the mid and end-21st century respectively. Strategies to reduce population growth in India during the 21st century may provide only limited mitigation of heatwave exposure mostly late in the century. Limiting global temperatures to 1.5 °C above preindustrial would reduce the exposure by half relative to RCP8.5 by the mid-21st century. If global temperatures are to exceed 1.5 °C then substantial measures will be required to offset the large increase in exposure to severe heatwaves in India.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = [12],
volume = [12],
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {10}
}

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Cited by: 16 works
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Observed heatwaves in India during the period of 1951−2015. (a) Heatwave magnitude for the observed heat waves during the period of 1951−2015, as measured by the method of Russo et al (2015) using all-India averaged daily maximum temperature. Colors in (a) show heat wave duration (in days). (b)more » heat wave magnitude for the 1998 heat wave, which was one of the most severe heat waves in the observed record of 1951−2015 (table S1), and (c) heat wave magnitude for the year 2015.« less

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Future projections of heat waves over India from CMIP5 models
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    Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India
    journal, June 2019


      Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.