Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise
Abstract
Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.
- Authors:
-
[4];
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
- Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Univ. of Buffalo, NY (United States)
- INRA-Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Villenave d'Ornon (France)
- INRA-Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Villenave d'Ornon (France); Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
- U.S. Geological Survey, Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
- Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1492529
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-15-26303
Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Climate Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; Biological Science
Citation Formats
McDowell, N. G., Williams, A. P., Xu, C., Pockman, W. T., Dickman, L. T., Sevanto, S., Pangle, R., Limousin, J., Plaut, J., Mackay, D. S., Ogee, J., Domec, J. C., Allen, C. D., Fisher, R. A., Jiang, X., Muss, J. D., Breshears, D. D., Rauscher, S. A., and Koven, C. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1038/nclimate2873.
McDowell, N. G., Williams, A. P., Xu, C., Pockman, W. T., Dickman, L. T., Sevanto, S., Pangle, R., Limousin, J., Plaut, J., Mackay, D. S., Ogee, J., Domec, J. C., Allen, C. D., Fisher, R. A., Jiang, X., Muss, J. D., Breshears, D. D., Rauscher, S. A., & Koven, C. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873
McDowell, N. G., Williams, A. P., Xu, C., Pockman, W. T., Dickman, L. T., Sevanto, S., Pangle, R., Limousin, J., Plaut, J., Mackay, D. S., Ogee, J., Domec, J. C., Allen, C. D., Fisher, R. A., Jiang, X., Muss, J. D., Breshears, D. D., Rauscher, S. A., and Koven, C. Mon .
"Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2873. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1492529.
@article{osti_1492529,
title = {Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise},
author = {McDowell, N. G. and Williams, A. P. and Xu, C. and Pockman, W. T. and Dickman, L. T. and Sevanto, S. and Pangle, R. and Limousin, J. and Plaut, J. and Mackay, D. S. and Ogee, J. and Domec, J. C. and Allen, C. D. and Fisher, R. A. and Jiang, X. and Muss, J. D. and Breshears, D. D. and Rauscher, S. A. and Koven, C.},
abstractNote = {Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2873},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 3,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Dec 21 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Mon Dec 21 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}
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Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective
journal, October 2019
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Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada
journal, May 2017
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Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change
journal, February 2019
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Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses
journal, November 2016
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Novel Hydraulic Vulnerability Proxies for a Boreal Conifer Species Reveal That Opportunists May Have Lower Survival Prospects under Extreme Climatic Events
journal, June 2016
- Rosner, Sabine; Světlík, Jan; Andreassen, Kjell
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Bioenergy Sorghum Crop Model Predicts VPD-Limited Transpiration Traits Enhance Biomass Yield in Water-Limited Environments
journal, March 2017
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- Frontiers in Plant Science, Vol. 8
Fagus sylvatica seedlings show provenance differentiation rather than adaptation to soil in a transplant experiment
text, January 2018
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