A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and Chlorophyll a

Tan, Zeli; Yao, Huaxia; Zhuang, Qianlai

doi:10.1029/2017WR022334

Title: A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and Chlorophyll a

Journal Article · 12 June 2018 · Water Resources Research

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022334 · OSTI ID:1490323

^[1]; Yao, Huaxia ^[2];

^[3]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Dorset, ON (Canada)
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Dorset, ON (Canada); Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

It is unclear how small temperate lakes will evolve physically and biologically in the whole water column under future climate because previous modeling studies usually focused on only one or two physical or biological state variables in the surface waters. To fill this gap, we used a well-validated lake biogeochemistry model driven with different climate scenarios to predict the dynamics of ice phenology, water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll in a small Canadian temperate lake during the 21st century, considering the influence of catchment hydrology. We find that the ice season and ice thickness of the lake would shrink substantially, resulting in a positive energy feedback between climate and the lake. Due to the reduced heat diffusion and water mixing, the dynamics of water temperature in surface waters and deep waters are considerably different, with surface waters warmed dramatically but deep waters muted to warming. The lake DO concentrations would be depleted by warming in the whole column but the controlling processes are depth dependent. The chlorophyll concentration in the lake is inertia to climate change, mainly due to the mismatch of the timings of peak solar radiation and thermal and nutrient optima. Our analysis indicates that the influence of catchment hydrology is large on the dynamics of DO, but not on other state variables we have examined. Finally, this study suggests that small temperate lakes could be sensitive to climate change but their physical and biological responses could be diverse.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1490323

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--133195

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 54; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll
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Title: A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and Chlorophyll a

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References (73)

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